Soroksár SC vs Kozármisleny: match statistics

Soroksár SC are in 1st place and have won 7 of their 11 league matches, while 15th-placed Kozármisleny have managed just 2 wins and suffered 8 defeats. At home, the hosts have won 83% of their matches, scoring an average of 3 goals and conceding 0.83, whereas the visitors have lost 71% of their away games and concede an average of 2 goals. The hosts have a clear edge in finishing: they convert 30% of their shots at home, compared with 9% for the visitors away, although the gap in the quality of chances created is smaller, with xG of 1.39 and 1.27 respectively. Kozármisleny’s defence allows chances worth an average of 1.87 xG away from home, further favouring the hosts, but their 12 goals conceded in the last 5 matches show that a win is far from certain.

Across the season, Soroksár have seen both teams score in 25% of their matches, compared with 43% for Kozármisleny, which supports a cautious BTTS - No pick. The hosts failed to score in 50% of their matches and the visitors in 43%; their scoring averages are just 0.75 and 0.86 goals, respectively. Soroksár’s recent form is a risk to this prediction: they averaged 3.0 goals across their last five matches, with both teams scoring in 80% of those games. However, both teams scored in only 40% of Kozármisleny’s last five matches, so it remains more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

In the matches between these two teams so far, at least 2 goals have been scored every time, providing the strongest signal in favor of Over 1.5 goals. Soroksár average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded, while Kozármisleny average 0.86 scored and 2.00 conceded, so weaker defenses could offset the attacks' modest scoring output. The last 5 matches involving the home side averaged 5.4 goals, compared with 2.6 in the away side's matches; however, this is a more volatile signal than the results for the lower line. Over 2.5 goals landed in 25% of Soroksár's matches and 71% of Kozármisleny's, so the higher line has considerably less support in the data. A projected total of 2.82 goals supports backing Over 1.5 goals, despite uncertainty over whether the game will follow a higher-scoring pattern.

Soroksár led at the break in 2 of their 4 home matches and conceded no first-half goals in those games, while Kozármisleny were trailing at half-time in 5 of their 7 matches and failed to score in that period. This clearly supports the hosts leading after 45 minutes. Recent scoring form also points to them holding on to their advantage: Soroksár averaged 3.0 goals across their last five matches, while Kozármisleny conceded 1.2 goals per game over the same period. The risk of a turnaround remains significant, as the hosts concede an average of 1.5 goals after half-time at home, while the visitors score 0.86 in that period. Despite this caveat, Soroksár leading at half-time and winning at full-time is the strongest individual scenario.