Southend United vs Solihull Moors: match statistics

Southend United holds a clear advantage in key home metrics: on average 1.86 goals scored and xG 2.18 per home game versus 1.15 goals and xG 1.40 for Solihull away, with 6.62 shots on target vs 3.9. The visitors struggle offensively on the road — they fail to score in 30% of away matches and concede on average 1.45 goals away, while Southend concedes only 0.86 at home. Form also favors the hosts: Southend have won 4 of their last 5 matches (12 goals in those games, averaging 2.6 points per match), whereas Solihull have 2 wins in their last 5 (6 goals, averaging 1.4 points per match). The difference in quality of chances is evident in xG against (1.12 for Southend at home vs 1.64 for Solihull away) and goal differential: +21 for the hosts versus -6 for the visitors on the road. Based on the higher number of shots on target, superior xG and lower percentage of scoreless matches (14% vs 30%), I favor a Southend victory.

Based on the data, the Both Teams To Score scenario is favored: Southend and Solihull both have a seasonal BTTS rate of 55%, compared to a league average of 56%. In the last 5 matches Southend had BTTS in 80% (4/5), while Solihull in 40% (2/5), which gives an edge to the “Yes” signal. Southend averages 2.0 goals per match on the season (2.4 in the last 5), has xG 1.62 and 5.41 shots on target per game, while Solihull concedes 1.45 goals per game on the season with xG against 1.64, so the home side has a real opportunity to score. Solihull records 1.15 goals per game on the season (1.2 in the last 5) and xG 1.40, and Southend concedes 1.77 goals seasonally (1.0 in the last 5) with xG against 1.75, suggesting a moderate but realistic chance for the visitors to score. Additionally, low clean sheet percentages (23% and 25%) and Solihull’s high number of goals conceded on the season (68) strengthen the BTTS signal; I recommend “BTTS - Yes” with a probability of 67% versus 33% for “No.”

Based on available data I project a total of approximately 3.20 goals: 1.95 for Southend and 1.25 for Solihull, estimated as a weighted average of seasonal mean (2.0), xG (1.62 vs 1.4) and the shot model (12.36×16%≈1.98 for Southend, 10.95×11%≈1.20 for Solihull). Seasonal percentages show Southend matches finished over 1.5 goals in 82% of cases and Solihull in 80%, therefore I rate Over 1.5 at 84%. The projected average of 3.20 goals (above the league average 2.94) and the hosts’ recent form — 2.4 goals in the last 5 matches and xG 2.25 — increase the chance of Over 2.5 to around 63%. The chance of Over 3.5 is moderate (~40%) because although Southend has 45% of matches over 3.5, Solihull has only 20% and has conceded 68 goals this season, which balances the potential for many goals. Therefore the strongest signal is an Over at 1.5 — the high historical rates 82%/80% and the 84% projection provide the best certainty-to-risk ratio.

First-half statistics favor Southend: the hosts led at the break in 45% of matches and score on average 1.05 first-half goals versus Solihull’s 0.5. Southend posts higher xG (1.62 vs 1.4), more shots (12.36 vs 10.95) and more shots on target (5.41 vs 3.9), and better conversion (16% vs 11%), indicating an advantage in creating and converting chances. In the last 5 matches Southend won 4 of 5 (80%) and in those games averaged 1.8 second-half goals, while Solihull averaged 0.6, so the hosts are more likely to close out games after the break. Although both teams have a season BTTS rate of 55%, HT BTTS figures are low (27% and 10%) and Solihull draws 40% of away matches, therefore one side is more likely to lead at the break (usually Southend). The strongest data signal is a lead for the hosts at half-time and a hosts’ win at full-time (1/1).