Sparta Praha vs Jablonec: match statistics

Sparta Praha have a clear home advantage: they win 67% of their matches, score an average of 2.33 goals, and create chances worth 2.32 xG per game. Away from home, Jablonec score just 1.00 goal with 1.05 xG, while their attack averages only 1.67 shots on target compared with Sparta’s 7.33. The hosts also dominate possession, controlling the ball for 68% of the match and attempting 20.33 shots per game, whereas the visitors record 50% possession and 9.33 attempts. Sparta’s defense remains a concern, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet at home and concede 1.67 goals per match. However, Jablonec have scored just 3 goals in their last five appearances. Neither team is in ideal form, but Sparta have won 2 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 for Jablonec, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Jablonec averages just 1.00 goals per season, while its output has dropped to 0.60 goals per match over the last 5 fixtures, significantly reducing the visitors’ chances of scoring. BTTS - Yes has landed in only 33% of Jablonec’s matches and in 40% of the teams’ last five matches combined, compared with a league average of 56%. Sparta has strong indicators for scoring: it averages 1.99 xG and 5.33 shots on target per match, while Jablonec’s defense allows opponents 1.84 xG. At the same time, Sparta has kept a clean sheet in 33% of its matches and allows opponents just 0.89 xG. Therefore, the most likely scenario is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

Sparta averages 1.99 xG and 18.33 shots per game at home, while Jablonec allows as much as 1.84 xG away from home. The hosts have scored in every home match, while Jablonec have found the net in 67% of their away fixtures, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. The 1.5 line has been surpassed in 67% of Sparta’s matches and in all of Jablonec’s games, with the league average standing at 2.94 goals. Sparta’s last five appearances produced an average of 3.6 total goals, although Jablonec’s weaker finishing—scoring only 0.6 goals per game—limits the potential for a high-scoring game. Therefore, Over 1.5 offers the strongest edge, while at the 3.5 line, a key restraining factor is that neither team has surpassed it this season.

The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Sparta win at full-time, as the hosts have a clear advantage in chance quality: their average xG is 1.99 compared with Jablonec’s 1.05, while their opponents concede an average xG of 1.84. Sparta also registers significantly more shots, averaging 18.33 per match, including 5.33 on target, compared with Jablonec’s 9.33 and 1.67 on target. A cautious opening is supported by the fact that Sparta have been level at the break in 2 of their 3 home matches so far, while Jablonec have been level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five appearances. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.33 goals and have won the second half in 67% of their matches, whereas Jablonec have yet to score in the second half and have lost 67% of those periods. Although Sparta’s form has not been flawless, their attacking advantage and the visitors’ weakness after half-time point towards the X/1 scenario.