Sparta Praha vs Teplice: match statistics

Teplice are showing clearly better current form: they remain unbeaten in their last 5 matches, winning 4 and scoring 13 goals, while Sparta have recorded 3 wins and 2 defeats during the same period. However, the hosts are very strong at home, having won 100% of their matches so far, scoring an average of 3 goals and registering 13 shots per game. Teplice also have a perfect away record and have yet to concede a goal, although their average output is only 1 goal with an xG of 1.16. Sparta create slightly more high-quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.44 compared with the opponents’ 1.16, but their defence allows an average xG of 1.27 and has not kept a clean sheet. The combination of Sparta’s effective attack and Teplice’s very solid away defence points to a closely contested match in which a draw is the most likely outcome.

Sparta have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring and conceding an average of 1.6 goals, which points to an open profile in their games. Teplice are in very good form, having scored 13 goals in their last five outings, averaging 2.6 per match, while their average xG stands at 1.38. The hosts do, however, have defensive problems, allowing opponents to generate 1.82 xG in the season data, while Teplice average 3 shots on target per game. Sparta should also find a way to score: they create an average of 1.62 xG, record 5.5 shots on target, and have kept a clean sheet in only 20% of their last matches. Although Teplice kept a clean sheet in their only away match of the season so far, the attacking numbers of both sides and the league-average BTTS rate of 63% provide slight support for a goal from each team — BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal.

Sparta’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, while Teplice’s matches averaged 3.8, but the chance-quality metrics point to a more moderate total. During this period, Sparta created chances worth 1.54 xG per match, while Teplice allowed opponents 1.72 xG, supporting a projection of around 1.55 goals for the home side. Teplice have averaged 1.38 xG across their last five outings, while Sparta’s defence allowed 1.14 xG, making a figure of around 1.25 goals more realistic for the visitors than a very high total. The 3.5 line offers value on the under, as the projected total of 2.80 goals remains clearly below four goals, despite Sparta recording Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five league matches. Additionally, the league average of 3.13 goals points to an open competition, but does not provide an equally strong case for going above the 3.5-goal line.

Teplice are in clearly better current form: they have won 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals and conceding just 1.2, while Sparta have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as Teplice were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while Sparta were leading at that stage in only 20% and went into the break trailing as many as 60% of the time. The visitors also have a solid defensive foundation before the break, keeping a clean sheet in 80% of their last five first halves. After the interval, Teplice score an average of 1.8 goals, won the second half in 100% of their last five matches and conceded just 0.4 goals in those periods. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a level score at half-time, followed by the visitors turning the match in their favour.