Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht: match statistics

Both teams lost their only match so far when playing in the respective home and away roles, but Utrecht create significantly more high-quality chances: their average away xG stands at 1.64 compared with Sparta’s 0.93 at home. The visitors also average 14 shots, including 7 on target, whereas Sparta have recorded neither a shot on target nor a goal at home from 10 attempts. Sparta’s defence allows opponents an xG of 2.17, which is inferior to Utrecht’s 1.64, although neither side has kept a clean sheet. Their form over the last five matches is almost identical, with both teams averaging 0.8 points per game, but Utrecht have scored 6 goals during this period, while Sparta have conceded as many as 11. The visitors’ superiority in chance creation and greater consistency in front of goal point towards a narrow Utrecht win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as the seasonal BTTS rate stands at 100% for both Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht, compared with a league average of 72%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while Sparta concede an average of 4.0 goals at home and Utrecht 2.0 away from home. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 1.4 goals and conceded 2.2, while the visitors have scored 1.2 and allowed their opponents 2.0 goals. Utrecht create particularly many chances, averaging 7 shots on target and recording an xG of 1.64, while Sparta’s weak defence allows opponents an xG of 2.43. The risk to the pick comes from Sparta’s low seasonal xG of 0.93, but Utrecht’s defence has also failed to keep a clean sheet, so BTTS - Yes remains the more likely outcome.

Utrecht have a clear edge in chance creation, averaging 1.64 xG and 7 shots on target, while Sparta record 0.93 xG and 2 shots on target. Sparta’s defence has conceded an average of 4.0 goals and 2.43 xG per game so far, which strongly supports at least two goals in the match. In their last five games, both teams have conceded heavily, averaging 2.2 and 2.0 goals per game respectively, while the overall goal averages in their matches stood at approximately 3.6 and 3.2. Over 2.5 goals is also well supported, having landed in 80% of Sparta’s and 60% of Utrecht’s last five matches, but Over 1.5 is clearly the safest signal. Further support comes from the league average of 3.5 goals and the fact that both teams have exceeded 1.5 goals in every match played so far this season.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Utrecht win, as the visitors create significantly more quality chances on average: their xG stands at 1.64 compared with Sparta’s 0.93, while shots on target are 7 to 2. Sparta scored only 0.4 goals per match before the break across their last five fixtures, whereas Utrecht failed to score in the first half in any of those games, favouring a cautious start and a level scoreline. After the interval, Utrecht averaged 1.2 goals in their last five matches, while Sparta conceded as many as 1.8 goals during that period. Both teams lost 60% of their last five matches, but Sparta’s defence has looked weaker throughout the season, conceding an average of 4 goals per match compared with Utrecht’s 2. An additional argument for the game being decided after half-time is that at least 2 second-half goals were scored in 80% of both teams’ recent matches.