Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa: match statistics

Spartak Pleven sit 3rd, while Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa are only 16th, and the difference is reflected in their current form: the hosts have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 for the visitors. Pleven have won every home game so far, scoring an average of 2 goals per match, whereas Lokomotiv have lost every away fixture and conceded an average of 2 goals on the road. The hosts are also significantly more clinical, converting 15% of their shots into goals compared with the visitors’ 8%, while averaging 5 shots on target per game against just 1 for Lokomotiv. Although Lokomotiv usually enjoy more possession, averaging 62% compared with 35%, they have conceded as many as 13 goals and scored only 4 in their last five matches. Spartak’s defence is not flawless, having failed to keep a clean sheet, but home advantage, superior finishing and a clearly stronger results trend all point decisively towards a home win.

The BTTS signal is moderately strong: the hosts recorded BTTS - Yes in 80% of their last 5 matches, while the visitors did so in 60%. During this period, Spartak averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, whereas Lokomotiv conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game, which should favour a goal for the hosts. The visitors scored only 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches, but their average xG stands at 1.44, while Spartak’s defence allowed opponents 1.82 xG and has not kept a clean sheet this season. Lokomotiv also has not recorded a single clean sheet, and its season BTTS rate is 100%, compared with the league average of 56%. The main risk is Spartak’s low season average of 0.5 goals, but their current attacking form and the defensive weaknesses of both teams make BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome.

Spartak have scored an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, while Lokomotiv conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game over the same period, which clearly supports the hosts’ attacking output. The visitors created chances worth an average of 1.44 xG, while Spartak’s defence allowed opponents 1.82 xG, making a Lokomotiv goal a realistic scenario as well. In their last five appearances, matches featuring at least three goals accounted for 80% of Spartak’s games and 60% of Lokomotiv’s. Although the seasonal scoring averages are lower, neither team has kept a single clean sheet, and the projected total of 2.65 goals provides the strongest betting edge for Over 1.5 goals.

Spartak Pleven are in clearly better current form: they have averaged 2.4 goals and won 60% of their last five matches, while Lokomotiv have scored 0.8 goals per game and lost as many as 80% of their outings. The hosts led at the break in 40% of those matches, whereas the visitors have not once gone into half-time ahead; Lokomotiv conceded an average of 1.8 goals before the break, compared with 0.6 for Spartak. In addition, the visiting side conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game in their last five league fixtures, which aligns well with the hosts’ attacking output of 2.4 goals. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore a Spartak lead at the break followed by them maintaining their advantage through to full-time, although a draw at half-time remains a significant alternative.