Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia: match statistics

CSKA Sofia sit 3rd and remain unbeaten this season, recording 5 wins and 1 draw, while Spartak Varna have a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats. The visitors create considerably more high-quality chances away from home: their average xG stands at 2.06 compared with Spartak’s 0.91, while their average number of shots on target is 7.5 versus 2.25 for the hosts. CSKA’s away defence has yet to concede a goal and has kept a clean sheet in 100% of matches, which is particularly significant given that Spartak score an average of just 1 goal at home. The hosts are also showing a weaker trend, having lost 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded 11 goals. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Spartak have drawn half of their home matches, but CSKA’s advantage in game control, possession at 61% to 35%, and attacking quality points to an away win.

A strong argument against BTTS - Yes is CSKA Sofia’s highly resilient defence: in the season data, the team kept a clean sheet in 100% of its matches, while Spartak failed to score in only 0% of their games. However, the hosts’ current form clearly weakens this counterargument, as they have averaged just 0.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, with an xG of 0.77. During the same period, CSKA Sofia conceded an average of 1.8 goals, but their xG conceded stood at 1.40, which still points to a realistic possibility of keeping an ineffective Spartak side at bay. BTTS - Yes has landed in only 40% of the last five matches for each team, compared with the league average of 55%. The visitors should have good chances of scoring, as Spartak have recently conceded 2.2 goals per match, but the more likely scenario is that at least one team—above all the hosts—will fail to score.

CSKA Sofia have averaged 1.8 goals over their last five matches, while Spartak Varna have conceded 2.2 goals per game during this period, which clearly supports an away goal. At the same time, Spartak have scored just 0.8 goals per match recently, with an xG of 0.77, making it difficult to expect a significant contribution from the hosts. CSKA’s away defence has yet to concede a goal in the seasonal data, although their recent average of 1.8 goals conceded suggests that a clean sheet is far from certain. The 3.5 line offers value, as all of CSKA’s away matches so far have finished with fewer than four goals, while the projected total of 2.70 remains clearly below this threshold. The expected scenario is a scoreline around 1:1, 1:2 or 0:2, making Under 3.5 goals the best choice.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a CSKA Sofia win after the match, as Spartak have scored just 0.2 goals before the break and conceded 1.0 on average across their last five games. During the same period, CSKA averaged 0.8 goals in the first half and held a half-time lead in 40% of their matches, while Spartak were trailing at the break in as many as 40% of games. The hosts do have very strong numbers from their limited sample of home matches, averaging 3.25 goals, but their current form is clearly weaker: just 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per match in their last five appearances. CSKA show greater attacking potential according to xG metrics, with 2.06 compared with Spartak’s 2.17, but have been more clinical in their current form, scoring 1.8 goals per match compared with the opponents’ 0.8. After the break, both teams play more openly, while CSKA average 1.0 goal in the second half, which favours the visitors edging a closely balanced match in their direction. The recommended HT/FT pick is X/2.