Spartak Varna vs Dobrudzha 1919: match statistics

Spartak Varna holds a clear home advantage: they average 1.21 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.25, while Dobrudzha score just 0.36 goals away with xG 1.14. The visitors have yet to win on the road this season (0% wins) and fail to score in 64% of away matches, which severely limits their offensive threat. Spartak creates more opportunities (10 shots and 3.71 shots on target per home game) and convert at a higher rate (12% conversion) compared to Dobrudzha’s 8.5 shots, 2.5 on target and 4% conversion. Both teams are also vulnerable defensively — Spartak concedes an average 2.07 goals at home (xG against 1.83), while Dobrudzha concede 1.71 away, indicating an open game with potential for multiple goals (Spartak’s home matches average 3.29 goals). Given the hosts’ superior efficiency and the visitors’ catastrophic away numbers (0% wins, 86% away defeats and 64% of matches without scoring), I back a home victory.

Both teams have relatively low BTTS rates this season: Spartak Varna 43% and Dobrudzha 36%, versus a league average of 44%, and in the last 5 matches both teams sit at 40% BTTS. From an xG perspective Spartak’s attack is 1.49 xG per match against Dobrudzha’s average conceded xG of 1.6, while Dobrudzha generates 1.14 xG versus Spartak’s conceded 1.1 xG, which indicates both sides create roughly 1.1–1.5 xG and have realistic scoring chances. The key signal is Spartak’s defense — in the last 5 matches Spartak has conceded 16 goals (3.2 per match), whereas Dobrudzha scored 4 goals in those 5 games (0.8 per match) and has a last-five average attacking xG of 1.26, so despite a season away scoring rate of 0.36 goals they can exploit the opponent’s weaknesses. Spartak’s attacks are more numerous — 11.29 shots and 4.36 shots on target per match with an 11% conversion, versus Dobrudzha’s 8.5 shots, 2.5 SoT and 4% conversion — this raises the probability of a Spartak goal, but the poor defensive form means Dobrudzha also has a realistic chance to score. Considering Spartak conceded 16 in the last 5 and xG showing both teams capable of creating above 1.1 xG, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 62% versus 38% for No.

The model based on xG and current form calculates total expected goals at 2.67 (Spartak Varna 1.55, Dobrudzha 1.12). Spartak averages 1.29 goals per game this season with an xG of 1.49 and 4.36 shots on target, while Dobrudzha averages 0.36 goals with an xG of 1.14 and 2.5 shots on target; the finishing efficiency gap (11% vs 4%) favors the home side. In the last 5 matches Spartak conceded an average of 3.2 goals (16 conceded), whereas Dobrudzha conceded 1.8 per match, and season percentages of matches over 1.5 are 79% for Spartak and 64% for Dobrudzha. With a combined expected score of 2.67 I estimate the probability of over 1.5 at about 75%, over 2.5 at about 50% and over 3.5 at about 28%. For these reasons I recommend betting the over 1.5 as the strongest signal (line 1.5), based on the combined xG, the home defense weakness (50 goals conceded this season and 3.2 in the last 5) and the high rate of matches over 1.5.

Spartak Varna holds a clear advantage: they score an average of 1.29 goals per match versus Dobrudzha’s 0.36, have a higher xG (1.49 vs 1.14), more shots on target (4.36 vs 2.5) and better shot accuracy (11% vs 4%). The visitors have yet to win away (0% wins) and lose 86% of their matches, going into half-time behind in 64% of their away games; the hosts led at the break in 4 of 14 home matches (29%), which supports Spartak having the lead after 45 minutes. Additionally, Spartak produce strong second halves — they average 1.71 points in second halves and won that period in 43% of cases, whereas Dobrudzha register only 0.36 points and 0% wins in second halves. In 79% of matches at least one goal was scored before the break, so a goalless half is less likely and a home lead (e.g. 1-0) is realistic. Given these figures, the most probable HT/FT scenario appears to be Spartak leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1), which I assess at about 38%.