Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia: match statistics

Spartak Varna sit 5th, while Septemvri Sofia are only 13th. In their last five matches, the hosts have collected 10 points from 3 wins and a draw, compared with the visitors’ 4 points. At home, Spartak remain unbeaten, winning 50% of their matches and drawing the other 50%, whereas Septemvri have lost both of their away fixtures so far. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals per home game, while the visitors manage just 0.5 away from home and fail to score in 50% of such matches. Septemvri’s defence concedes 2.5 goals per away game and has yet to keep a clean sheet; combined with Spartak’s 19% shot-conversion rate, this gives the hosts a clear advantage. However, caution is warranted, as Spartak’s home xG stands at only 1.00, while their opponents average 1.17 xG away from home, meaning a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The BTTS signal is mixed, but it leans slightly more strongly toward at least one team failing to score. Septemvri Sofia have averaged just 0.5 goals across the season and 0.8 goals in their last five matches, while failing to score in half of their league games. Spartak Varna are in better attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals in their last five outings, while conceding 2.0 goals per match during that period, making a home goal likely. However, Septemvri’s finishing remains a concern for the Goal/Goal scenario: they average 7.0 shots and 2.5 shots on target, compared with Spartak’s 11.5 and 4.0 respectively. The historical BTTS rate stands at 50% for both teams, but the visitors’ lower goal production gives a slight edge to BTTS - No. This means that at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Both teams have exceeded the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their matches so far this season, and neither has kept a clean sheet. In their last five games, Spartak averaged 2.2 goals scored, while Septemvri conceded 2.0 goals per match, clearly strengthening the hosts’ attacking potential. Recent scoring form also points to an open game: Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of the last five appearances by both teams, compared with the league average of 56%. Spartak create more chances, averaging 11.5 shots and 4.0 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.53, while the visitors’ defence allows an average xG of 1.62. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as it is supported by every result recorded by both teams, while the projected 2.80 goals provides this line with a clear margin of safety.

Spartak Varna have been clearly stronger over their last five matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded while winning 60% of their games, whereas Septemvri have scored 0.8 goals, conceded 2.0, and lost 60% of their matches. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the hosts held a lead at the break in 80% of their last five appearances, while the visitors went into half-time trailing in as many as 80%; on average, Spartak have scored 1.2 first-half goals compared with just 0.2 for Septemvri. The hosts also create more chances over the course of the season, with an xG of 1.53 versus 1.17 and an average of 4.0 shots on target compared with the opponents’ 2.5. After the break, Spartak still maintain an advantage, recently averaging 1.0 goal scored and 0.4 conceded, while Septemvri concede 1.0 goal per match in this period. A scenario in which the hosts lead at half-time and go on to win is therefore the most consistent with both current form and the distribution of results across the two halves.