Spartans vs Kelty Hearts: match statistics

Spartans are 4th in the table, while Kelty Hearts are 9th. The hosts are unbeaten in all 4 home matches, whereas the visitors have lost all 4 away games. At home, Spartans score an average of 3.25 goals per match and register 5.75 shots on target, while Kelty Hearts manage just 0.5 goals and 2.5 shots on target away from home. The hosts’ edge in chance creation is reflected in the xG figures: 1.51 for Spartans compared with 0.72 for Kelty Hearts in away matches. Kelty Hearts concede an average of 2.75 goals on the road and have let in 13 goals across their last 5 matches, boosting the hosts’ chances despite Spartans’ own average of 2.25 goals conceded at home. Spartans’ three draws in 4 home matches warrant some caution, but the visitors’ away record clearly points towards a home win.

Both teams scored in 100% of Spartans’ home matches and 50% of Kelty Hearts’ away matches, giving the BTTS - Yes scenario a moderate edge. Spartans average 2.25 goals at home, while the visitors concede 2.75 away, so a Spartans goal looks likely. The visitors are the bigger unknown: they score just 0.5 goals per away match and have failed to score in 50% of those games. However, their last 5 matches offer a stronger attacking signal — an average of 2.0 goals scored and BTTS in 80% of games — while Spartans concede an average of 1.75 goals at home. Therefore, despite the risk that Kelty Hearts may fail to score, BTTS - Yes has a slight edge.

Spartans’ matches have averaged 4.0 goals so far, while Kelty Hearts’ matches have averaged 3.25, pointing to favourable conditions for at least two goals. The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 100% of the home team’s matches and 75% of the away team’s matches. Spartans score an average of 2.25 goals, while Kelty Hearts concede 2.75, although the hosts’ lower xG of 1.28 calls for caution with higher lines. The visitors score just 0.5 goals per match in the split analysed, but Spartans concede an average of 1.75, so an away goal remains possible. With a projected total of 3.35 goals, Over 1.5 is the strongest pick; Over 2.5 offers a smaller edge, as it has landed in 50% of Kelty Hearts’ matches so far.

Spartans led at the break in 3 of their 4 home matches, while Kelty Hearts were trailing at half-time in all 4 of their away games, making a home lead after 45 minutes the most likely outcome. Spartans averaged 1.25 goals before the break, while the visitors scored none in that period away from home and conceded an average of 1.25 goals. The full-time record also points to the hosts holding on to their lead: Spartans won 3 of 4 home matches and scored an average of 2.25 goals, while Kelty lost all 4 away games, conceding an average of 2.75 goals. Spartans’ attacking edge is further reflected in their average xG of 1.28 against the visitors’ 0.72, as well as 5.75 shots on target per match compared with 2.5. There is some risk of a turnaround, as Kelty won the second half in 4 of their last 5 matches; however, their away record makes 1/1 the strongest pick.