Spezia vs Avellino: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams in this encounter. Spezia occupies a weak 18th position in the table with just a 20% win rate at home and a negative run (0.6 points per match in the last 5 games). Avellino performs little better away - only 20% away wins and 40% losses, although they possess slightly better form (1 point per match). The key factor is the identical goal difference of both teams (-6 for the hosts at home and -6 for the visitors away) and similar xG values, suggesting comparable offensive and defensive potential. Spezia has the home field advantage, but very poor form (4 losses in the last 5 matches) makes it difficult to pinpoint a favorite. Avellino's high percentage of away draws (40%) and the defensive problems of both teams (averaging 1.4 and 1.6 conceded goals) point to a draw as the most probable scenario.
Spezia vs Avellino: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Spezia played Avellino in Serie B (Italy). The match was played on 24 January 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Spezia: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Avellino: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Spezia scores 0.90 and concedes 1.40 goals per match. Avellino scores 1.20 and concedes 1.65. League average: 2.47 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Spezia 55%, Avellino 55%. Over 2.5: Spezia 40%, Avellino 50%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Spezia has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.14. Spezia: 10.4 shots per match, Avellino: 10.0.
Match halves
Spezia: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.50. Avellino: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.55.
Goals by minute
Spezia: 76-90+ (7 goals). Avellino: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.47 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams in this encounter. Spezia occupies a weak 18th position in the table with just a 20% win rate at home and a negative run (0.6 points per match in the last 5 games). Avellino performs little better away - only 20% away wins and 40% losses, although they possess slightly better form (1 point per match). The key factor is the identical goal difference of both teams (-6 for the hosts at home and -6 for the visitors away) and similar xG values, suggesting comparable offensive and defensive potential. Spezia has the home field advantage, but very poor form (4 losses in the last 5 matches) makes it difficult to pinpoint a favorite. Avellino's high percentage of away draws (40%) and the defensive problems of both teams (averaging 1.4 and 1.6 conceded goals) point to a draw as the most probable scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Spezia | Avellino | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Avellino is 67% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Spezia · 1 pts / match - Avellino
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Avellino is 33% better for: goals scored per match.
0.9 goals / match - Spezia · 1.2 goals / match - Avellino
Spezia is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.4 goals / match - Spezia · 1.65 goals / match - Avellino
Spezia scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Avellino keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 matches).
Avellino scores in 65% of matches (13 of 20 matches), while Spezia keeps a clean sheet in 20% (4 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Spezia
Over / Under - Avellino
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Avellino is 56% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.9 pts / match - Spezia · 1.4 pts / match - Avellino
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Spezia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Avellino - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Spezia
Avellino
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Spezia | Liga | Avellino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.30 | 2.47 | ▲ 2.85 |
| Both teams scored | • 55% | 55% | • 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 46% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 27% | ▼ 15% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 70% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | ▼ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Spezia 1 - 0 - 0 Avellino. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Spezia vs Avellino?
The Serie B match finished Spezia 1:0 Avellino. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Spezia vs Avellino?
Spezia score 0.90 goals per game on average and Avellino 1.20. The Serie B average is 2.47 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Spezia's matches and 55% of Avellino's.
What form are Spezia and Avellino in?
Over the last 5 games Spezia have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Avellino 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Spezia vs Avellino?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.