Spezia vs Livorno: match statistics

Spezia are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 4 wins and scoring 11 goals, while Livorno have netted 6 during the same period. At home, the hosts won their only match so far, kept a clean sheet, and are averaging 1.34 xG from 11 shots per game. Livorno have also yet to concede away from home, but drew their only match, failed to score, and are creating just 0.64 xG from an average of 4 shots. Spezia’s possession advantage stands at 54% to 46%, and their attack should force the well-organised visitors to react more frequently. Livorno’s poor away attacking output increases the likelihood of a controlled home win, although the visitors’ solid defence leaves a realistic chance of a draw.

The strongest signal is Livorno’s very weak away record so far: averaging 0.0 goals, scoring in 0% of matches, and recording a 0% BTTS rate. Spezia kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home games, while Livorno managed only 2.0 shots on target away from home and created an average of 0.64 xG. The visitors’ last five matches look better, as they scored 1.2 goals from 1.39 xG, but Spezia conceded only 0.6 goals during this period and allowed opponents just 0.85 xG. The hosts are clear offensive favorites, averaging 1.5 goals at home compared with Livorno’s 0.0 away, making a one-sided scoring outcome more likely than BTTS - Yes. Therefore, BTTS - No is the stronger selection: it means that at least one team is expected not to score, rather than automatically predicting a 0:0 draw or neither team scoring.

Spezia are in excellent attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Livorno have conceded just 0.4 goals per game during the same period. The hosts should create more chances, as they average 5.0 shots on target compared with Livorno’s 2.0, and their projected xG stands at 1.55. At the same time, the visitors are yet to score away from home, with an average away xG of just 0.64, while Spezia have allowed opponents only 0.85 xG across their last 5 matches. In addition, both teams have recorded 100% of matches under 3.5 goals in the available data for Livorno’s away games and Spezia’s home games, clearly reducing the likelihood of four goals. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the expected total of 2.30 points more towards a scoreline such as 1:0, 2:0, 1:1 or 2:1.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time, as both Spezia and Livorno were level after 45 minutes in 100% of their available season matches, while Livorno also recorded this outcome in all five of their last fixtures. First halves are typically tight: Spezia average 0.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, whereas Livorno both score and concede 0.4 goals on average. After the break, Spezia’s advantage becomes clear, as they have averaged 1.8 second-half goals in their last five matches compared with Livorno’s 0.8, and the hosts won this period in 80% of cases. Spezia also possess greater chance-creation potential, with an xG of 1.29 compared with their opponents’ 0.64, as well as averaging 5 shots on target per match versus Livorno’s 2. Despite the visitors’ strong current form, having avoided defeat in each of their last five matches, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Spezia victory at the final whistle.