Spokane Velocity vs Fort Wayne: match statistics
Spokane Velocity vs Fort Wayne: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Spokane Velocity played Fort Wayne in USL League One (United States). The match was played on 26 July 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Spokane Velocity: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Fort Wayne: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Spokane Velocity scores 1.29 and concedes 1.24 goals per match. Fort Wayne scores 1.50 and concedes 0.88. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Spokane Velocity 41%, Fort Wayne 44%. Over 2.5: Spokane Velocity 59%, Fort Wayne 44%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 60%.
xG, shots and style
Fort Wayne has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.42. Spokane Velocity: 11.9 shots per match, Fort Wayne: 12.9.
Match halves
Spokane Velocity: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.59. Fort Wayne: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Spokane Velocity: 31-45+ (5 goals). Fort Wayne: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 60%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Spokane Velocity holds a clear home advantage — they win 78% of home matches, score on average 1.67 goals per home game with an average xG of 1.43 and concede an average 1.32 xG against, with a home goal differential of +5. Fort Wayne on the road averages 1.22 goals per away match with an xG for of 1.30, but concedes a higher xG against away (1.60) and has a neutral goal differential (0) on the road. The hosts register more shots on target (avg. 3.56 vs 3.11) and have a higher conversion rate — 14% versus the visitors’ 11%. With 54% possession at home compared to Fort Wayne’s 50%, this suggests better control and higher-quality chances for Spokane. In the short term both teams share an identical last-5 record (3 wins, 2 losses), although Fort Wayne scored more goals in that span (10 vs 7), indicating solid attacking potential. Overall: edge to Spokane due to strong home form, superior shooting efficiency and lower xG against (1.32 vs 1.60); therefore I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict no BTTS — 68% for 'no' vs 32% for 'yes'. The primary argument is Spokane's very strong home defense: the team concedes only 0.43 goals per game and keeps a clean sheet in 71% of matches, with a season-long home BTTS rate of 29%. Fort Wayne shows offensive signs (10 goals in the last 5 matches, 2.0 per match and season BTTS 56%), but their season average of shots on target is only 3.11 versus Spokane's 5.57, and they score 1.22 goals per game with xG 1.3 for the season. Considering the sizable home clean sheet advantage (71% vs 22%) and Spokane's low goals conceded average, the 'no' scenario looks more likely despite the league-wide BTTS tendency of 55%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and form analysis indicates total expected goals of 2.91 (1.64 for Spokane, 1.27 for Fort Wayne), calculated as home xG 1.68 vs away defense 1.60 and away xG 1.30 vs home defense 1.24. A Poisson model with lambda=2.91 yields roughly a 79% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 56% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5), which aligns with seasonal stats: Over1.5 for Spokane 71% and Fort Wayne 89%, and Over2.5 at 57% and 33% respectively. Although Spokane posts a high clean sheet rate of 71% and low BTTS of 29%, the hosts generate 5.57 shots on target versus 3.11 for the visitors and have a higher conversion 13% vs 11%, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals in the match. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (high expected total 2.91 and seasonal Over1.5 71%/89%), so I recommend backing the Over side at the 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Spokane Velocity have strong home metrics: at home they score 1.86 goals and concede 0.43 on average; by Half-Time they average 1.00 scored and 0.29 conceded. The hosts led at the break in 3 of 7 matches (43%) and have never been behind at half at home (0%). Fort Wayne’s season averages are 1.22 goals for and 1.22 against; at Half-Time they average 0.67 scored and 0.56 conceded, with away xG 1.30 versus the home xG of 1.68. Additionally, Spokane average 5.57 shots on target compared to Fort Wayne’s 3.11. Spokane keep 71% clean sheets on the season and as many as 86% clean sheets by Half-Time, with BTTS at home 29%, indicating the hosts rarely concede before the break and seldom relinquish a lead. In the season HT/FT distribution the hosts have 4 home wins and 3 draws (57% wins), and the fact that 3 Half-Time leads convert into final victories provides the strongest signal for the 1/1 scenario. Therefore the primary recommendation is 1/1 — Spokane to lead at Half-Time and hold on for the Full-Time win.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Spokane Velocity | Fort Wayne | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fort Wayne is 11% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Spokane Velocity · 2 pts / match - Fort Wayne
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fort Wayne is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
1.29 goals / match - Spokane Velocity · 1.5 goals / match - Fort Wayne
Fort Wayne is 41% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.24 goals / match - Spokane Velocity · 0.88 goals / match - Fort Wayne
Spokane Velocity scores in 65% of matches (11 of 17 matches), while Fort Wayne keeps a clean sheet in 44% (7 of 16 matches).
Fort Wayne scores in 81% of matches (13 of 16 matches), while Spokane Velocity keeps a clean sheet in 29% (5 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Spokane Velocity
Over / Under - Fort Wayne
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fort Wayne is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.47 pts / match - Spokane Velocity · 1.63 pts / match - Fort Wayne
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Spokane Velocity - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Fort Wayne - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Spokane Velocity
Fort Wayne
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Spokane Velocity | Liga | Fort Wayne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.53 | 2.85 | ▼ 2.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 55% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 59% | 60% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 26% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | • 71% | 72% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 80% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Spokane Velocity 0 - 0 - 1 Fort Wayne. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Spokane Velocity vs Fort Wayne?
The USL League One match finished Spokane Velocity 3:1 Fort Wayne. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Spokane Velocity vs Fort Wayne?
Spokane Velocity score 1.29 goals per game on average and Fort Wayne 1.50. The USL League One average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 60% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Spokane Velocity's matches and 44% of Fort Wayne's.
What form are Spokane Velocity and Fort Wayne in?
Over the last 5 games Spokane Velocity have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Fort Wayne 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Spokane Velocity vs Fort Wayne?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Spokane Velocity vs Fort Wayne: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.