Spokane Velocity vs Forward Madison: match statistics
Spokane Velocity vs Forward Madison: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Spokane Velocity played Forward Madison in USL League One (United States). The match was played on 2 July 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Spokane Velocity: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Forward Madison: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Spokane Velocity scores 1.31 and concedes 1.31 goals per match. Forward Madison scores 1.75 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.90 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Spokane Velocity 54%, Forward Madison 58%. Over 2.5: Spokane Velocity 62%, Forward Madison 58%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Forward Madison has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.38. Spokane Velocity: 11.8 shots per match, Forward Madison: 12.8.
Match halves
Spokane Velocity: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.54. Forward Madison: half-time lead 58%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Spokane Velocity: 31-45+ (5 goals). Forward Madison: 16-30 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.90 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Spokane Velocity holds a clear table advantage (5th) over Forward Madison (8th) and a superior goal differential at home (+6 versus -2 on the guests’ road games). The hosts have scored 17 goals this season (5 in the last 5 matches) and concede 1.13 goals per home match, while the visitors have 21 goals this season (9 in the last 5) and concede 1.38 on the road. Spokane generates more chances — 11.63 shots per home match with 3.13 on target and a 16% conversion rate, versus Forward Madison’s 9.63 shots, 3.5 on target and 12% conversion; the hosts also enjoy higher possession (53% vs 46%). A major home advantage is only 13% of home matches without scoring compared to 38% of the visitors’ away matches without a goal, alongside a higher clean sheet rate for the hosts (25% vs 13%); in the last 5 matches the hosts averaged 1.2 points and the visitors 1.4 points. Considering an 88% home win rate for Spokane, similar xG (1.36 for Spokane vs 1.22 for Forward Madison) and the hosts’ superiority in chance creation, a home win is more likely (60%), draw 20%, away win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistically the BTTS scenario is strongly supported: Spokane has a season BTTS rate of 75% versus Forward Madison’s 50%, the league BTTS is 56%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS in 60% of games. Offensively Spokane is clearly stronger: season goals 3.0 and xG 2.05 with 7.25 shots on target and 19.0 shots per match, while Forward average 1.13 goals, xG 1.22, 3.5 shots on target and 9.63 shots. Defensively Forward concede more — season 1.38 goals and conceded xG 1.43 versus Spokane, who concede 0.75 goals seasonally and have a 25% clean sheet rate; this increases the likelihood that the visitors will be scored on. In the short term Spokane look worse form-wise — in the last 5 matches they scored 5 goals total (1.0 per game) and conceded 9 (1.8 per game), while Forward over the same period scored 9 (1.8) and conceded 6 (1.2), which confirms a realistic chance for both teams to get on the scoresheet. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at 70% (Yes) versus 30% (No) and recommend: yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Spokane Velocity average 3.0 goals scored per home game with an xG of 2.05 from 19.0 shots and 7.25 on target, while Forward Madison have an attacking xG of 1.22, average 9.63 shots (3.5 on target) and concede 1.38 goals away. Combined xG (2.05 vs away defense 1.43 and 1.22 vs home defense 1.09) gives estimated 1.74 goals for Spokane ((2.05+1.43)/2) and 1.16 for Madison ((1.22+1.09)/2), totaling 2.90 expected goals. A distribution model around a 2.90 total projects roughly a 79% probability of Over 1.5, ~55% for Over 2.5 and ~33% for Over 3.5 (Unders: 21%, 45%, 67%). Season data reinforce these signals: Spokane have 100% of home matches Over 1.5 and 75% Over 2.5, and 75% of home games featured goals from both sides, boosting the likelihood of at least two goals. Based on this, I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (over, 1.5) — high home goals average 3.0, shot advantage 19.0 vs 9.63 and estimated total 2.90 support this selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is Spokane Velocity leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1), because at home Spokane led at the break in 4 of 4 matches (100%), scoring an average of 1.5 goals by half-time and conceding none (0.0). On the season the home side averages 3.0 goals per game and concedes 0.75, while Forward Madison averages 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded, with home win percentages of 75% versus 38% for the visitors. The quality gap is also visible in xG and shots — Spokane’s xG is 2.05 compared to 1.22 for the visitors, and they average 19 shots (7.25 on target) versus Forward Madison’s 9.63 (3.5 on target). At the same time Spokane concedes more often after the break (0.75 in the second half) and have 75% BTTS at home, so a realistic course is a lead at the break and a final win with a permissible scoreline of 2-1. Based on these numbers I assigned a 64% probability to 1/1, 21% to 1/X, 6% to X/1, 5% to X/X and 1% each to the remaining scenarios.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Spokane Velocity | Forward Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 27% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Forward Madison is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Spokane Velocity · 2 pts / match - Forward Madison
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Forward Madison is 34% better for: goals scored per match.
1.31 goals / match - Spokane Velocity · 1.75 goals / match - Forward Madison
Forward Madison is 12% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.31 goals / match - Spokane Velocity · 1.17 goals / match - Forward Madison
Spokane Velocity scores in 69% of matches (9 of 13 matches), while Forward Madison keeps a clean sheet in 17% (2 of 12 matches).
Forward Madison scores in 75% of matches (9 of 12 matches), while Spokane Velocity keeps a clean sheet in 23% (3 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Spokane Velocity
Over / Under - Forward Madison
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Forward Madison is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.62 pts / match - Spokane Velocity · 1.92 pts / match - Forward Madison
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Spokane Velocity - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Forward Madison - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 58% of matches and wins 50%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Spokane Velocity
Forward Madison
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Spokane Velocity | Liga | Forward Madison | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.62 | 2.90 | • 2.92 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 54% | 57% | • 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 62% | 59% | • 58% |
| Clean sheets | • 23% | 24% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 73% | ▲ 92% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 82% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Spokane Velocity 2 - 0 - 0 Forward Madison. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Spokane Velocity vs Forward Madison?
The USL League One match finished Spokane Velocity 0:1 Forward Madison. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Spokane Velocity and Forward Madison?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Spokane Velocity won 2, Forward Madison won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Spokane Velocity vs Forward Madison?
Spokane Velocity score 1.31 goals per game on average and Forward Madison 1.75. The USL League One average is 2.90 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 54% of Spokane Velocity's matches and 58% of Forward Madison's.
What form are Spokane Velocity and Forward Madison in?
Over the last 5 games Spokane Velocity have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Forward Madison 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Spokane Velocity vs Forward Madison?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Spokane Velocity vs Forward Madison: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.