Spokane Velocity vs Sarasota Paradise: match statistics
Spokane Velocity vs Sarasota Paradise: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Spokane Velocity played Sarasota Paradise in USL League One (United States). The match was played on 24 May 2026. Venue: Lumen Field. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Spokane Velocity: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Sarasota Paradise: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Spokane Velocity scores 1.63 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. Sarasota Paradise scores 0.90 and concedes 1.90. League average: 2.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Spokane Velocity 63%, Sarasota Paradise 60%. Over 2.5: Spokane Velocity 63%, Sarasota Paradise 60%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
Sarasota Paradise has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.28. Spokane Velocity: 11.1 shots per match, Sarasota Paradise: 13.0.
Match halves
Spokane Velocity: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.63. Sarasota Paradise: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.40.
Goals by minute
Spokane Velocity: 16-30 (3 goals). Sarasota Paradise: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.79 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Spokane Velocity are clear favorites: they sit 3rd in the table and have won all home matches (home win rate 100%), averaging 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per home game. Sarasota Paradise are 15th and have lost all away matches (away loss rate 100%), averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded on the road, and failed to score in 67% of away fixtures. The gap in chance quality is significant: Spokane average 12 shots (4 on target) at home with a 20% conversion, while Sarasota average 9.33 shots (2.33 on target) with only 4% conversion; average xG is 1.42 for Spokane versus 1.21 for Sarasota, with xG against 1.39 vs 1.69. Form confirms the home advantage: Spokane in last 5 matches are 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (WLDWW) and 2.0 points per game, scoring 6 and conceding 6, while Sarasota have lost their last 5 matches, have 0 points and conceded 13 while scoring only 3. Considering Spokane’s 100% home wins versus Sarasota’s 100% away losses and the 2.4 vs 0.33 goals per game and 20% vs 4% conversion difference, I predict a home win; I estimate probabilities at about 80% for Spokane, 12% for a draw and 8% for the visitors.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - No (at least one team fails to score), primarily due to Sarasota Paradise’s poor finishing: just 0.33 goals per match and goalless in 67% of their games this season. Spokane Velocity has a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% and averages 1.14 goals per match with xG 1.58, but Sarasota concedes 2.67 goals per match on average and despite xG_for 1.21 fails to convert (conversion rate 4% for Sarasota vs 8% for Spokane). In the last 5 matches Sarasota scored only 3 and conceded 13 (0.6 scored and 2.6 conceded per match) and lost all five, while Spokane in their last 5 are 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss and 6:6 in goals. Additionally, Spokane averages 14.57 shots and 4.29 on target per match versus 9.33/2.33 for Sarasota, which combined with the visitors’ low finishing reduces the likelihood of BTTS. Therefore I estimate 65% for BTTS - No and 35% for BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project a total goals figure of approximately 2.84 (Spokane 1.63; Sarasota 1.21), calculated from xG averages: (1.58 + 1.69)/2 = 1.63 for the home side and (1.21 + 1.21)/2 = 1.21 for the visitors. The 2.84 total exceeds the league average of 2.77 and is 1.34 goals above the 1.5 threshold; historically Spokane has 71% of matches over 1.5 while Sarasota has 100%, providing a strong signal for Over 1.5. Spokane averages 14.57 shots per game with 4.29 on target and an 8.0% conversion rate, whereas Sarasota averages 9.33 shots, 2.33 on target and a 4.0% conversion; additionally, Sarasota concedes 2.67 goals per game on average, which favors a higher scoring outcome. In the last 5 matches Spokane scored 6 goals and holds a 3-1-1 record, while Sarasota has conceded 13 goals and suffered 5 straight losses, strengthening the home advantage. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line (≈90% probability); Over 2.5 is rated moderate (≈58%), and Over 3.5 unlikely (≈25%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Spokane are the favorites: in their last 5 matches the home side led at the break in 3 of 5 (60%) and won 3 of 5 (60%), while Sarasota have lost all of their last 5 games (100% defeats) and have 0% wins. xG and shot statistics confirm Spokane’s superiority — home xG is 1.58 versus 1.21 for the visitors; the hosts average 14.57 shots and 4.29 shots on target per game versus Sarasota’s 9.33 and 2.33, with shot conversion of 8% vs 4%. The visitors score only 0.33 goals per game on average and concede 2.67 goals per game, and they concede an average of 2.0 goals in the second half, which reduces their chances of a turnaround after the break. At half-time the hosts score an average of 0.57 goals, while the visitors concede an average of 0.67 goals by the break; additionally 71% of Spokane’s matches had at least one goal by half-time, so a scenario of the home side leading at the break and holding on to win the match appears most realistic. For these reasons I pick 1/1 (Spokane lead at Half-Time and win Full-Time).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Spokane Velocity | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.50 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Spokane Velocity is 267% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Spokane Velocity · 0.6 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Spokane Velocity is 81% better for: goals scored per match.
1.63 goals / match - Spokane Velocity · 0.9 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise
Spokane Velocity is 68% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Spokane Velocity · 1.9 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise
Spokane Velocity scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Sarasota Paradise keeps a clean sheet in 10% (1 of 10 matches).
Sarasota Paradise scores in 70% of matches (7 of 10 matches), while Spokane Velocity keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Spokane Velocity
Over / Under - Sarasota Paradise
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Spokane Velocity is 71% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.88 pts / match - Spokane Velocity · 1.1 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Spokane Velocity - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Sarasota Paradise - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Spokane Velocity
Sarasota Paradise
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Spokane Velocity | Liga | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.75 | 2.79 | • 2.80 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 58% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 58% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 24% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | • 75% | 75% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 78% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Spokane Velocity vs Sarasota Paradise?
The USL League One match finished Spokane Velocity 1:0 Sarasota Paradise. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Spokane Velocity vs Sarasota Paradise?
Spokane Velocity score 1.63 goals per game on average and Sarasota Paradise 0.90. The USL League One average is 2.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Spokane Velocity's matches and 60% of Sarasota Paradise's.
What form are Spokane Velocity and Sarasota Paradise in?
Over the last 5 games Spokane Velocity have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Sarasota Paradise 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Spokane Velocity vs Sarasota Paradise?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.