Sport Huancayo vs UCV Moquegua: match statistics

Sport Huancayo boast significantly stronger home numbers: they win 50% of their matches, average 1.5 goals scored, and create chances worth 1.92 xG per game. UCV Moquegua have won just 9% of their away fixtures, losing 73% of them, while scoring only 0.36 goals per match. The hosts average 18.6 shots and 5.7 on target, compared with the visitors’ 9.55 attempts and just 2.82 shots on target, while their average possession stands at 38%. Huancayo’s home defense allows opponents just 0.8 xG and concedes an average of 1 goal, which is particularly favorable given that Moquegua fail to score in 73% of their away matches. The teams’ last five matches were relatively even in terms of points, but the hosts’ advantage in chance-creation quality and the visitors’ poor away finishing point to a Sport Huancayo win.

The strongest signal points to UCV Moquegua failing to score: they average just 0.36 goals per match this season and do not score in 73% of their games. Their BTTS rate is only 27%, significantly below Sport Huancayo’s 64% and the league average of 56%. In their last five matches, the visitors have improved to an average of 0.8 goals, but they still manage just 2.82 shots on target per game, while their xG of 1.01 does not provide particularly strong grounds for regular scoring. Sport Huancayo concede an average of 1.09 goals per match, keep a clean sheet in 36% of their fixtures and, at home, should primarily exploit their opponents’ poor finishing. Therefore, the more likely scenario is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or both teams failing to find the net.

Sport Huancayo score an average of 1.45 goals per match, while UCV Moquegua concede 1.55, giving the home side a clear basis for scoring around 1–2 goals. However, the visitors are highly limited offensively: their average is just 0.36 goals, and they failed to score in 73% of matches. Huancayo’s last five games produced an average xG of 1.73, while Moquegua allow opponents an xG of 1.50; however, the visitors’ poor finishing limits the potential for a high-scoring game. Over 3.5 goals has landed in only 27% of the home side’s matches and just 9% of UCV Moquegua’s games, while the corresponding under 3.5 figures are 73% and 91%. The projected total of 2.20 goals therefore makes under 3.5 the strongest pick.

Sport Huancayo have a clear quality advantage: they score an average of 1.45 goals per match, compared with just 0.36 for UCV Moquegua, while the visitors have lost as many as 73% of their matches. The home side have held a lead at the break in 36% of their matches, twice as often as their opponents away from home, who have been trailing after 45 minutes in 45% of their appearances. UCV Moquegua score just 0.18 goals per match before half-time and fail to score in the first half in 82% of matches, strongly supporting an early lead for the hosts. After the break, Huancayo score an average of 0.91 goals, while Moquegua concede 1.00, giving the home side a solid foundation to preserve or extend their advantage. The HT/FT scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and securing a full-time victory is therefore the strongest single option, although Huancayo's high 45% draw rate leaves a significant chance of a draw at half-time.