Sport Recife vs Vila Nova: match statistics

Sport Recife shows better form over the last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 5 goals scored — averaging 1.0 goals per game and 1.6 points per game in this period. Vila Nova have a run of 5 draws (0 wins, 5 draws), with 3 goals scored and 3 conceded in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals per game and 1.0 points per game. Comparing attack and defense, Sport scores more (5 vs 3 in the last 5) but also concedes more (5 vs 3), indicating a more open home side. League positions (9th Sport vs 13th Vila) and a higher average points per game at home in the last 5 matches (1.6 vs 1.0) give them an edge, so I tip the home win, although Vila Nova’s run of 5 draws increases the likelihood of a shared point outcome.

Sport Recife has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and BTTS 60% in the last 5 matches, while Vila Nova shows seasonal BTTS 0% and 40% in their last 5. In chance creation both teams have similar recent xG: 1.37 for Sport and 1.38 for Vila Nova, with xG against 1.22 (Sport) vs 0.91 (Vila), suggesting both sides can generate scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches Sport scored 5 goals (1.0 avg) and conceded 5, and Vila Nova scored 3 (0.6 avg) and conceded 3, so both teams have been involved in goals recently. Against the BTTS case is a high clean sheet rate in the league at 60% and Vila Nova’s seasonal data showing 0.0 xG and 0% BTTS (possible incomplete data), which reduces confidence in the prediction. Considering the strong home signals for the hosts (100% seasonal BTTS and 100% over 2.5+BTTS at home) and the similar recent xG of 1.37–1.38, I assign BTTS - Yes 65% vs 35% for No.

Sport Recife at home averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded (seasonScoredAVG_home=2.0, seasonConcededAVG_home=2.0), and the both teams to score rate at home is 100%, indicating consistent BTTS matches. Based on the last 5 matches, xG is 1.37 for the home side and 1.38 for the away side, while xG against is 1.22 for Sport Recife and 0.91 for Vila Nova (last5_xg_for_avg_overall_home=1.37, last5_xg_for_avg_overall_away=1.38; last5_xg_against_avg_overall_home=1.22, last5_xg_against_avg_overall_away=0.91). These averages project approximately 1.14 goals for the home team and 1.30 for the away team (total ≈2.44), which is very close to the 2.5 threshold but clearly above 1.5. Additionally, Sport Recife averages 8 shots per game with 4 on target (shotsAVG_home=8.0, shotsOnTargetAVG_home=4.0) and a declared conversion rate of 25%, and all home matches so far have been Over 1.5 (seasonOver15Percentage_home=100%), increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. Therefore I recommend an Over play at the 1.5 line (strongest signal) — estimated probability: Over 1.5 ~85%, Over 2.5 ~45% (Under 55%), Over 3.5 ~18% (Under 82%).

Data show the home side were leading at the break in 0% of matches and trailing at half-time in 100% (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 0.0, trailingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0), with an average of 1.0 goals conceded by half-time (concededAVGHT_home = 1.0). At the same time Sport Recife scores an average of 2.0 goals after the break (scored_2hg_avg_home = 2.0), has a 100% second-half win rate (wins_2hg_percentage_home = 100.0) and collects 3 points in those matches (points_2hg_home = 3.0), which strongly suggests a pattern of making up deficits after half-time. This is supported by xG: the home side have xG 0.97 versus 1.65 for their opponents (xg_for_avg_home = 0.97 vs xg_against_avg_home = 1.65), i.e. they create less in the first 45 minutes but catch up in the second half. The away team have recorded 100% draws in their last 5 matches and have a season scoring average of 0.0 (last5_drawPercentage_overall_away = 100.0, seasonScoredAVG_away = 0.0), which reduces their likelihood of holding a lead. Therefore the strongest signal is the scenario where the visitors lead at half-time and the home side complete a turnaround to win — HT/FT '2/1' (assigned 40% probability).