Sporting Braga vs FC Arouca: match statistics
Sporting Braga vs FC Arouca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sporting Braga played FC Arouca in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Sporting Braga: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. FC Arouca: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sporting Braga scores 2.00 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. FC Arouca scores 1.32 and concedes 2.04. League average: 2.72 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sporting Braga 52%, FC Arouca 54%. Over 2.5: Sporting Braga 70%, FC Arouca 68%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Sporting Braga has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.18. Sporting Braga: 12.6 shots per match, FC Arouca: 10.4.
Match halves
Sporting Braga: half-time lead 52%, second-half goals 0.81. FC Arouca: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Sporting Braga: 16-30 (13 goals). FC Arouca: 61-75 (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.72 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sporting Braga has a clear advantage at home: they score an average of 2.15 goals per match at home while conceding 1.00, whereas FC Arouca score only 1.14 away and concede 2.14. The hosts create more chances — on average 11.31 shots and 4.62 on target at home versus 10.29 shots and 2.86 on target for the visitors away — and xG confirms the superiority 1.41 vs 1.11. Braga fail to score in only 15% of home matches, while Arouca are goalless in 29% of their away games, indicating greater offensive confidence for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Braga have scored 7 and conceded 5, averaging 1.4 points per game, while Arouca scored 6 and conceded 8, averaging 1.2 points per game; the difference in defense and goal difference (Braga home GD +15 vs Arouca away GD -14) further favors the Braga side. Based on these numbers I forecast a home win, most likely by a one- or two-goal margin.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season BTTS rate: Sporting Braga 57%, FC Arouca 50%, both above league average 47%, indicating elevated likelihood of goals from both sides. Braga kept a clean sheet in only 14% of home games, Arouca in 29% of away games; additionally Braga concedes on average 1.93 goals at home, Arouca concedes 2.14 away, so both teams trend toward conceding. Offensively Braga posts xG 1.26 vs Arouca 1.11, registers more on-target shots (4.21 vs 2.86) and has a higher conversion rate (14% vs 11%), and the high share of matches >2.5 goals (71% Braga, 64% Arouca) favors a Goal/Goal outcome. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 40% of Braga’s games and 60% of Arouca’s; in those five Braga scored 7 and conceded 5 (avg 1.4 and 1.0), while Arouca scored 6 and conceded 8 (1.2 and 1.6), showing Arouca has recently been more prone to allowing goals. Considering the above — season BTTS 57% vs 50%, Braga’s low clean sheet rate 14% and Arouca’s high goals conceded 2.14 — I assign BTTS 70% and No Goal 30% and recommend a BTTS - Yes bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: Braga has xG_for 1.26, Arouca 1.11, and xG_against 1.47 (Braga) and 1.52 (Arouca), which averages to an expected 1.39 goals for the home team and 1.29 for the away team (total 2.68). Assuming a Poisson distribution for the 2.68 total, we estimate ~75% probability for >1.5 goals (≥2), ~50% for >2.5 (≥3) and ~28% for >3.5 (≥4). Season data support the goal direction: Braga has 93% of matches >1.5 and 71% >2.5, Arouca 71% and 64% respectively; Braga averages 4.21 shots on target vs 2.86 for Arouca and has higher conversion 14% vs 11%. Despite high seasonal Over 2.5 rates, current xG and last 5 matches (xG 1.16 for Braga and 1.10 for Arouca) suggest a moderate probability of exceeding 2.5, so for prudence we rate over 2.5 at ≈50%. Therefore the strongest signal is the over on the 1.5 line (recommendation: Over 1.5) with an estimated probability ~75% and an expected combined total of 2.68 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
In the last 5 matches Braga led at the break in 60% of games (3 of 5), while Arouca did so in only 20% (1 of 5), which strongly favors the home side leading after 45 minutes. Braga has a higher xG (1.26 vs 1.11), more shots on target (4.21 vs 2.86) and better conversion rate (14% vs 11%), and at home scores an average of 1.5 goals compared to Arouca’s 1.14 away, so Braga’s attack looks stronger. Arouca concedes an average of 2.14 goals away, while Braga concedes 1.93 at home; additionally, second halves at the hosts produce an average of 1.93 goals and 93% of matches see a goal after the break, which increases the chance to maintain or extend a lead. From these data the most likely scenario is Braga leading at half-time and the home win (1/1), therefore I rate this outcome highest. Alternative options are a draw at half-time and a later Braga victory (X/1) or a draw-draw (X/X), while an away win appears less probable (Arouca has a 29% win rate this season and away PPG of 1.0).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sporting Braga | FC Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Sporting Braga is 67% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Sporting Braga · 1.2 pts / match - FC Arouca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sporting Braga is 52% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Sporting Braga · 1.32 goals / match - FC Arouca
Sporting Braga is 104% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Sporting Braga · 2.04 goals / match - FC Arouca
Sporting Braga scores in 89% of matches (24 of 27 matches), while FC Arouca keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 28 matches).
FC Arouca scores in 71% of matches (20 of 28 matches), while Sporting Braga keeps a clean sheet in 37% (10 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sporting Braga
Over / Under - FC Arouca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sporting Braga is 74% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.74 pts / match - Sporting Braga · 1 pts / match - FC Arouca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sporting Braga - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 52% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
FC Arouca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (13 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sporting Braga
FC Arouca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Sporting Braga | Liga | FC Arouca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.00 | 2.72 | ▲ 3.36 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 47% | ▲ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 70% | 55% | ▲ 68% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 37% | 30% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 93% | 71% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 79% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Sporting Braga 1 - 0 - 0 FC Arouca. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sporting Braga vs FC Arouca?
The Liga NOS match finished Sporting Braga 1:0 FC Arouca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Sporting Braga vs FC Arouca?
Sporting Braga score 2.00 goals per game on average and FC Arouca 1.32. The Liga NOS average is 2.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Sporting Braga's matches and 54% of FC Arouca's.
What form are Sporting Braga and FC Arouca in?
Over the last 5 games Sporting Braga have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and FC Arouca 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sporting Braga vs FC Arouca?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.