Sporting Cristal vs Atlético Grau: match statistics

Sporting Cristal have a clear home advantage: they win 67% of their matches, score an average of 2.42 goals, and have failed to score in only 0% of their home games. Atlético Grau score just 0.69 goals per away match, fail to find the net in 62% of their outings, and lose as many as 62% of their matches, which significantly limits their chances. The hosts create considerably more opportunities, averaging 17.75 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match, compared with 10 shots and 3.31 shots on target for the visitors. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances: Sporting Cristal’s average home xG is 1.93, while Atlético Grau’s away xG stands at 1.07, with the visitors simultaneously recording 1.83 xG against. Although Grau have won 4 of their last 5 matches overall, their poor finishing and defensive record away from home point to a home win.

Long-term data clearly support the BTTS - No outcome: BTTS occurred in only 38% of Sporting Cristal matches and 31% of Atlético Grau games, compared with the league average of 57%. Atlético Grau score just 0.69 goals per match on average, fail to score in 62% of their games, while Sporting Cristal keep a clean sheet in 46% of their appearances. The hosts should create more chances, as their average xG stands at 1.53 compared with 1.83 xG conceded by the visitors, but this does not guarantee a goal for the away side. The last five matches for both teams produced 60% BTTS and averages of 2.0 and 2.4 goals scored per match respectively, increasing the chances of a BTTS - Yes scenario, but the shorter-term form does not offset Grau’s poor season-long attacking efficiency. The most likely outcome therefore remains one in which at least one team fails to score, particularly with a home clean sheet a realistic possibility.

The form of both teams clearly raises the goal projection: Sporting Cristal have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, while Atlético Grau have scored 10, averaging 2.4 and 2.0 per game respectively. Each team has conceded 6 goals over this period, equating to 1.2 goals conceded per match and favouring a move above the low line. The hosts average 1.53 xG, while the visitors allow opponents 1.83 xG; meanwhile, Grau’s attacking projection is supported by 1.07 xG against Cristal’s 1.33 xG conceded. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Cristal’s and 60% of Grau’s last five matches, although the long-term data for both teams is more conservative. The strongest option remains Over 1.5 goals, as just two goals are required to cover this line, and the current attacking output and defensive numbers of both sides provide clear support.

Sporting Cristal have a clear advantage over the full season: they average 1.23 goals scored and 0.69 conceded, while Atlético Grau score only 0.69 and concede 1.46 goals per match. The hosts have won 54% of their matches and kept a clean sheet in 46%, whereas the visitors have lost as many as 62% of their games and failed to score in 62%. Cristal’s superiority is already evident before half-time, as they led at the break in 38% of matches compared with just 8% for Grau; additionally, the visitors score only 0.15 goals per game in the first half. The hosts’ xG stands at 1.53 versus 1.07 for Grau, while their opponents allow an average of 1.83 xG, making a Cristal lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory the most likely scenario.