Sporting Delhi vs Inter Kashi: match statistics

Sporting Delhi is the favorite in this matchup due to superiority in attack and home metrics: the hosts average 1.2 goals per home game versus Inter Kashi’s 0.88 on the road, with average xG of 1.48 vs 1.11. The difference in chance quality is also visible in shots and shots on target — Sporting averages 12.4 shots and 4.4 on target per home match, while Inter has 9.25 shots and only 2.5 on target away. Additionally, the hosts have a much lower share of scoreless games (20% vs 50%), higher conversion rate (10% vs 9%) and more clean sheets (40% vs 25%), translating into greater efficiency in turning chances into goals. Defensively Sporting concedes 1.0 goals per match with xG against 1.39, while Inter concedes 1.25 with xG against 1.56, giving the hosts a small but meaningful advantage at the back. Considering these figures and relatively similar recent form (Sporting about 1.0 point average from the last 5 matches, Inter about 1.4), I propose the probability split: 55% home win, 25% draw and 20% away win.

My statistical analysis favors BTTS - Yes. Sporting Delhi posts a season BTTS rate of 67% versus Inter Kashi’s 50% and a 52% league average, giving the home side a clear edge for both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches combined xG is approximately 1.56 + 1.04 = 2.60 (above the league average 2.44), while xG against of 1.36 + 1.55 = 2.91 indicates both sides create and concede meaningful chances. Sporting Delhi averages 3.0 shots on target and 1.0 goals scored with 1.67 conceded, whereas Inter Kashi records 2.5 SOT, 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match — these figures point to goal risk at both ends. A counterargument is that Inter Kashi have 50% of season matches without scoring, and the teams’ BTTS rate in the last 5 fixtures has dropped to 40%, which reduces confidence. Weighing pros and cons (home season BTTS 67%, Sporting with 0% matches without a goal, and elevated last5 xG 2.60), I give the edge to Yes and estimate probability at about 60% vs 40%.

xG and xG conceded analysis shows Sporting Delhi with an attacking xG of 1.31 and xG against 1.61, while Inter Kashi has an attacking xG of 1.11 and xG against 1.56. Averaging these values yields an estimated 1.44 goals for the home side and 1.36 for the visitors, totaling approximately 2.80 goals. Seasonal figures support this projection: the home team has 67% of matches over 1.5 goals, the visitors 63%, and in the last 5 meetings both teams recorded 60% of matches over 2.5. A Poisson model for a 2.80 mean gives probabilities of over 1.5 at ~77%, over 2.5 at ~53% and over 3.5 at ~31%, making over 1.5 the strongest signal. Additionally, the hosts average 3.0 on-target shots versus 2.5 for the visitors, and home matches have ended with both teams scoring in 67% of cases (visitors 50%), which reinforces the goal-scoring match scenario.

I select the draw at half-time and away win (X/2) as the most likely scenario because in the last 5 matches the visitors won 40% of games versus 20% for the home side and they have a higher average points per match 1.4 compared to 1.0. At half-time both teams score little: the home team averages 0.67 goals by the break, the visitors 0.25, and the home side were level at half-time in 60% of their last 5 matches, which favors a draw at half-time. The visitors are, however, more dangerous after the break — they average 0.63 second-half goals versus 0.33 for the hosts and have 75% of matches with a goal after half-time, while the hosts have 67% — this gives the visitors the edge late on. xG shows similar chance creation (1.31 for the hosts versus 1.11 for the visitors), but both teams concede more than they create defensively (xG against 1.61 vs 1.56), which favors turnarounds after the break in favor of the team stronger in the second half.