Sportist Svoge vs CSKA Sofia II: match statistics

CSKA Sofia II are the clear favorites: they sit 5th in the table vs Sportist Svoge’s 16th, and have 11 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 6. The visitors’ attack looks significantly more dangerous on paper — CSKA II have scored 41 goals this season and average 1.42 goals away, while Sportist have 21 goals and average 0.83 at home; shot conversion is 13% vs 9% and average shots on target are 6 vs 5.18. Defensively the hosts have more issues this season (37 goals conceded vs the visitors’ 27), although at home they concede 1.42 on average and the visitors concede 1.75 away; CSKA II do have 17% clean sheets, whereas Sportist have 0% clean sheets at home. In the last 5 matches Sportist scored only 1 goal and average 0.8 points per game, while CSKA II scored 4 goals and average 1.2 points per game; the hosts failed to score in 50% of home matches, whereas the visitors were shut out in 25% of their away games. Considering the league positions, superiority in goals, better xG (1.41 vs 1.25) and greater efficiency, I predict a victory for the visitors.

Sportist Svoge at home has a seasonal average of 1.85 goals scored and 0.46 conceded, with 54% clean sheets; the hosts’ seasonal BTTS rate is only 31%, and in the last 5 matches they have 0% BTTS and an average of 0.2 goals scored, indicating a clear drop in offensive efficiency. CSKA Sofia II records 1.42 goals scored and 1.75 conceded this season; their seasonal BTTS of 67% implies a historical tendency toward Goal/Goal fixtures, but in the last 5 matches the visitors have BTTS 40% and average 0.8 goals per match. xG indicators are mixed: the hosts generate xG 1.88 with average xG against 1.42 (theoretically opening the door for goals), but in the hosts’ last 5 games xG_for is 1.04 versus xG_against 1.32, which combined with 0.2 goals per match suggests low finishing efficiency. Additionally, 66% of league matches finish as clean sheets, and comparing 54% clean sheets for the hosts versus 17% for the visitors, together with form of 0% BTTS for the hosts vs 40% for the visitors, favors a No Goal / clean sheet expected scenario. For these reasons I assign a higher probability to “BTTS - No” (around 70%) than to “BTTS - Yes” (around 30%).

xG and average goals analysis yields a combined expected total of about 2.91: home 1.65 (xG for attack 1.88 vs opponent defense 1.42) and away 1.26 (xG for attack 1.41 vs home defense 1.11). Sportist Svoge averages 13.46 shots per game of which 8.15 are on target and keeps a clean sheet in 54% of matches, while CSKA II records 11 shots (6 on target) and in 67% of their games both teams have scored. Using a Poisson distribution for a total of 2.91, the probability of Over 1.5 is ~79%, Over 2.5 ~56%, and Over 3.5 ~33%. Seasonal rates confirm this: Over1.5 occurs in 62% of home matches and 92% of away matches, whereas Over3.5 appears in only 23–25% of cases. Therefore the strongest signal is backing Over 1.5 (high confidence ~79% with an expected total of 2.91 and a home shots advantage); I recommend the Over 1.5 line.

The home side is favored to lead at the break: they led at half-time in 46% of matches and average 0.85 goals in the first half, while the visitors concede an average of 0.83 goals before the break. Their advantage persists through the full match — the home team wins 62% of fixtures and has a season scoring average of 1.85 goals versus the visitors’ 1.42; additionally they produce 1.88 xG compared to the visitors’ 1.41 xG. The home defense is strong: they concede only 0.46 goals per match on the season and keep a clean sheet in 54% of matches and in 69% of first halves, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. The visitors have a weaker defense (1.75 goals conceded per match on average and only 17% clean sheets) and fewer shots on target (6.0 vs. the home side’s 8.15), so they have a reduced capacity for a turnaround. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is the home team leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1) — I assign the highest probability to this scenario (37%).