Sportist Svoge vs Hebar 1918: match statistics

Hebar 1918 have the better chance of winning: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 17 goals in that span, while Sportist Svoge have recorded 1 win and scored 4 goals. Away from home, the visitors average 2.5 goals and 5.17 shots on target per match, compared with 1 goal and 3.33 shots on target for the hosts at home. The gap in chance quality is smaller than the gap in goals scored—Hebar's away xG is 1.45, while Sportist's home xG is 1.02—but it still favours the visitors. Hebar's away defence, which concedes an average of 2 goals, is a potential concern, especially as Sportist lose only 17% of their home matches and draw 50%. Therefore, an away win is the most likely outcome, although the hosts' solid home defence, conceding an average of 0.83 goals, leaves a genuine chance of a draw.

BTTS occurred in 80% of Sportist Svoge’s matches and 83% of Hebar 1918’s games, well above the league average of 45%. Both teams have scored in every match they have played so far, while clean sheets have been rare — in 20% and 17% of matches, respectively. The hosts average 1.78 xG, compared with 1.43 xG conceded by the visitors, supporting their chances of scoring. Hebar average 2.5 goals per match, while Sportist concede 1.4, making an away goal likely as well. Caution is warranted due to the hosts’ weaker last five matches: they averaged 0.8 goals in that run, with BTTS landing in 40% of those games. However, the overall data still points to BTTS - Yes.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 80% of Sportist Svoge’s matches and 100% of Hebar 1918’s. The hosts average 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while the visitors average 2.5 scored and 2.0 conceded, pointing to goal-scoring potential from both sides. Both teams scored in 80% of the hosts’ matches and 83% of the visitors’ matches, so just one goal from each side would be enough to cover the selected line. Although Hebar went Over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches, Sportist did so in only 20%, making the 1.5 line the clearer signal. The 3.5-goal total projection supports a high-scoring game, but given the contrasting results in recent matches, the lower line is the safer pick.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: Sportist Svoge were level at the break in 60% of their matches, compared with 50% for Hebar. The hosts concede an average of just 0.4 goals before half-time, although the visitors score 1.33 goals per game in that period, making a Hebar lead at the break a close alternative. The visitors’ recent form supports a win after the interval: they averaged 3.4 goals across their last five matches and won 60% of them, while Sportist scored 0.8 goals and won 20%. Over the season as a whole, Hebar average 2.5 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.8, increasing the likelihood of a second-half turnaround. However, the X/2 pick is not clear-cut, as the hosts’ xG is 1.78 compared with the visitors’ 1.45, and Hebar concede an average of 2.0 goals per match.