Sportivo Carapeguá vs Encarnación: match statistics

Sportivo Carapeguá have a clear advantage in current form: they have collected 9 points from their last 5 matches, while Encarnación have managed just 2 and remain without a win in that period. The hosts win 56% of their home matches, score an average of 1.22 goals, and fail to score in only 11% of games. Encarnación average just 0.56 goals per away match, fail to score in 67% of their outings, and have netted only 1 goal in their last five league fixtures. Although the visitors concede an average of just 0.89 goals away from home, their defensive xG against stands at 1.68, indicating that they allow numerous high-quality chances. With the hosts' xG at 1.03 and Encarnación's poor finishing, a controlled Sportivo Carapeguá victory is the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal against BTTS - Yes comes from Encarnación: the team scores an average of just 0.56 goals per match and has netted only 1 goal in its last five fixtures, averaging 0.2 per game. The visitors have failed to score in 67% of their matches this season, while their BTTS rate stands at just 11%, well below the league average of 55%. Sportivo Carapeguá has a weak defense, conceding an average of 1.9 goals per match, but Encarnación’s current attacking output remains very limited, as confirmed by an xG of 0.75 over the last five games. The hosts themselves have scored 1.2 goals per match during this period, making a one-sided scoring outcome more likely than both teams finding the net. Therefore, BTTS - No is the preferred selection.

Encarnación have scored just 1 goal in their last five matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while their current xG stands at only 0.75. Across the season, the visitors average 0.56 goals and failed to score in as many as 67% of their matches, despite Carapeguá’s weak defense conceding an average of 1.9 goals. Encarnación’s away-game profile is highly conservative: 89% of matches finished Under 2.5 goals, and 89% also finished Under 3.5 goals. Carapeguá have greater attacking potential, averaging 1.2 goals with an xG of 1.5 over their last five matches, but Encarnación have conceded just 5 goals during this period. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as data from both teams clearly limits the likelihood of a game featuring four or more goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Sportivo Carapeguá win, as Encarnación were level at the break in 6 of their 9 matches, while the hosts recorded the same result in 4 of 10 games. The visitors average just 0.22 goals before half-time and have failed to score in the first half in each of their last five appearances, which significantly reduces the likelihood of them taking an early lead. After the break, however, Carapeguá are in better form: across their last five matches, they averaged 0.8 goals scored, conceded only 0.4, and won 60% of their games, while Encarnación failed to win any. The hosts’ advantage is also supported by their current full-match scoring efficiency, having recently averaged 1.2 goals per game compared with just 0.2 for their opponents. Although Encarnación have a solid season-long defensive record, with clean sheets in 22% of their matches, their record of 0 wins and a 60% loss rate in the last five games points towards the match being decided in the hosts’ favour only after half-time.