Sportivo Carapeguá vs Fernando de la Mora: match statistics

Sportivo Carapeguá hold a slight advantage in current form, taking 8 points from their last 5 matches compared with Fernando de la Mora’s 7, although the visitors remain unbeaten during this period thanks to 4 draws. Fernando de la Mora average 1.38 goals per away match, compared with Carapeguá’s 1.13 goals at home, and also create more chances: 10.38 shots and an xG of 1.41 versus the hosts’ 7.5 shots and xG of 1.02. However, the home side are significantly more solid defensively on their own ground, conceding an average of 1.25 goals with an xG against of 0.93, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.45 and concede 1.5 goals away from home. Both teams have identical home-away records: 50% wins, 13% draws and 38% defeats, which, combined with the visitors’ strong tendency to share the points, points towards a draw.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by a strong current trend, as both Sportivo Carapeguá and Fernando de la Mora have seen both teams score in 80% of their last 5 matches. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while the visitors scored 1.6 goals and conceded 1.4. Across the season, the BTTS rate stands at 56% for Carapeguá and 63% for Fernando de la Mora, both at least matching the league average of 56%. The defences provide no strong clean-sheet signal: the hosts kept a clean sheet in only 11% of matches, compared with 25% for the visitors, while conceding an average of 1.44 and 1.50 goals respectively. The main risk remains Carapeguá's low season scoring output, with an average of 0.89 goals, although their xG of 1.59 and 3.33 shots on target per match suggest a realistic chance of finding the net.

The match profile points to approximately 2.51 goals: the hosts average 1.59 xG, while Fernando de la Mora average 1.41 xG, although over their last five matches these figures have dropped to 1.21 and 1.06, respectively. Sportivo Carapeguá score just 0.89 goals per game in the league, and neither team has scored three goals in an individual match in more than 25% of their appearances. The 3.5 line has not been exceeded in 67% of the hosts’ matches and 62% of the visitors’ games, which is a clear argument for a limited goal ceiling. At the same time, both teams had BTTS in 80% of their matches over the last five rounds, making a 1:1 or 1:2 scoreline more likely than a very low-scoring game, while still supporting Under 3.5.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while across the season this occurred in 44% of Carapeguá’s games and 63% of Fernando de la Mora’s. First halves are typically tight: the hosts average just 0.22 goals in them and the visitors 0.50, while the corresponding overall averages are 0.78 and 0.88. Fernando de la Mora have a clearly superior record over the full campaign, averaging 1.63 points per match, with a 50% win rate and 1.38 goals scored, compared with Carapeguá’s 0.78 points, 11% win rate and 0.89 goals. However, as many as 80% of Fernando de la Mora’s recent matches have ended in draws. The game should open up after the break, with goals scored in 89% of the hosts’ matches and 88% of the visitors’ matches, but both teams’ draw-oriented profiles, along with Carapeguá’s improvement to 1.6 points per match across their last five games, support the expectation that the points will be shared.