Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Guaraní: match statistics
Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Guaraní: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sportivo San Lorenzo played Guaraní in Division Profesional (Paraguay). The match was played on 10 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Sportivo San Lorenzo: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Guaraní: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sportivo San Lorenzo scores 0.67 and concedes 2.20 goals per match. Guaraní scores 1.40 and concedes 1.07. League average: 2.42 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sportivo San Lorenzo 53%, Guaraní 47%. Over 2.5: Sportivo San Lorenzo 40%, Guaraní 40%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 38%.
xG, shots and style
Sportivo San Lorenzo has higher xG: 1.27 vs 1.21. Sportivo San Lorenzo: 11.7 shots per match, Guaraní: 10.5.
Match halves
Sportivo San Lorenzo: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.40. Guaraní: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.87.
Goals by minute
Sportivo San Lorenzo: 76-90+ (4 goals). Guaraní: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Division Profesional: 2.42 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 38%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Guaraní is the favorite in this match: the visitors have recorded 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses this season and scored 21 goals, while Sportivo San Lorenzo has 0 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses with only 10 goals. The form gap is clear — in the last 5 matches Guaraní is 2-2-1 with an average of 1.6 points per game, whereas Sportivo is 0-2-3 with 0.4 points per game; the home side conceded 9 goals in those five games and the visitors only 3. In attack Guaraní averages 1.29 goals on the road with 3.43 shots on target and a 13% conversion rate, while San Lorenzo at home has only 0.71 goals, 2.86 shots on target and a 6% conversion rate, and the share of matches without scoring is 43% for the hosts versus 29% for the visitors. Defensively the hosts concede 2.57 goals per home game (avg xG against 1.69) and have a home goal difference of -13, while Guaraní concedes 1.29 goals away (xG against 1.33), has an away goal difference of 0 and 43% clean sheets. Considering the hosts’ lack of home wins — 0% home victories — and the visitors’ superior efficiency and defensive stability (1.6 vs 0.4 points per game), I tip Guaraní to win and estimate their chances at about 65%, with 20% for a draw and 15% for the hosts.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Based on the data I project BTTS = NO with a 60% probability vs 40% for BTTS - Yes. Sportivo San Lorenzo scored 4 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 0.8) and conceded 9 (avg. 1.8), while Guaraní has 4 scored (avg. 0.8) and only 3 conceded (avg. 0.6) in their last 5, indicating stronger defensive form from the visitors. Season BTTS rates are 38% for the home team and 57% for the away team versus a league average of 48%, but the last 5 matches show an average BTTS of 40% (60% home vs 20% away), i.e. a trend below the league average. xG analysis shows 1.28 xG for the home side against 1.33 xG conceded to the visitors, and 1.13 xG for the visitors against 1.37 xG conceded to the hosts – values near 1.0 suggest balanced chances, yet Guaraní's better defense (0.6 conceded in the last 5) limits both teams' scoring opportunities. Additionally, the hosts average 4.63 shots on target vs 3.43 for the visitors, but their form 'ddlll' versus the visitors' 'lddww' and the low goal returns over the last 5 (4 and 4) reinforce the signal for No Goal / clean sheet expected.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model projects 1.31 goals for Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.25 for Guaraní (total 2.56), calculated as the average between the teams' attacking xG (1.28 and 1.13) and the xG conceded by their opponents (1.33 and 1.37). Both teams show strong indications for Over 1.5 — Sportivo have scored over 1.5 goals at home in 75% of matches, Guaraní in 71% — hence a high 78% probability for Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is balanced: seasonally only 38% of Sportivo’s matches and 43% of Guaraní’s matches finished above 2.5, but the projected total of 2.56 and the higher number of on-target shots from the home side (4.63 vs 3.43) give a slight edge to Over 2.5 (54%). The 3.5 line is unfavorable for Over — seasonal Over 3.5 is 38% for the home team and 29% for the away team, and the expected 2.56 is well below 3.5, so Under 3.5 has a strong edge (72%). Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal for this matchup.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is X/1 (draw at half-time, home win), because the home team has a clear seasonal advantage: on average 1.75 points per home game versus 1.0 points per away game and 50% home wins versus 14% away wins. A draw at the break is common in the data – the home side had a half-time draw in 38% of matches (3), and the away side in 57% (4), with average first-half goals of 0.5 for the home team and 0.57 for the visitors, which favors a low goal count in the first half. However, the home advantage becomes apparent in the second half and over the full match: seasonally the home team scores 1.5 goals per game vs. 1.29 for the away team and concedes 0.88 vs. 1.29, and accumulated points at the break 12 (home) versus 7 (away) indicate they can produce a turnaround after the interval. Additionally, the home side generates slightly more xG (1.28 vs. 1.13), so it is logical that with frequent HT draws they are more often the team to win the match; therefore X/1 receives the highest probability, with 1/1 and X/X as the next most realistic scenarios.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | Guaraní | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Guaraní is 300% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Sportivo San Lorenzo · 1.6 pts / match - Guaraní
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Guaraní is 109% better for: goals scored per match.
0.67 goals / match - Sportivo San Lorenzo · 1.4 goals / match - Guaraní
Guaraní is 106% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.2 goals / match - Sportivo San Lorenzo · 1.07 goals / match - Guaraní
Sportivo San Lorenzo scores in 53% of matches (8 of 15 matches), while Guaraní keeps a clean sheet in 40% (6 of 15 matches).
Guaraní scores in 67% of matches (10 of 15 matches), while Sportivo San Lorenzo keeps a clean sheet in 7% (1 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sportivo San Lorenzo
Over / Under - Guaraní
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Guaraní is 140% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.53 pts / match - Sportivo San Lorenzo · 1.27 pts / match - Guaraní
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sportivo San Lorenzo - second-half results
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Guaraní - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sportivo San Lorenzo
Guaraní
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Division Profesional).
Teams vs league
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | Liga | Guaraní | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.87 | 2.42 | • 2.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 48% | • 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 40% | 38% | ▲ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 7% | 29% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 60% | 57% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 80% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Sportivo San Lorenzo 0 - 0 - 1 Guaraní. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Guaraní?
The Division Profesional match finished Sportivo San Lorenzo 1:0 Guaraní. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Guaraní?
Sportivo San Lorenzo score 0.67 goals per game on average and Guaraní 1.40. The Division Profesional average is 2.42 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Sportivo San Lorenzo's matches and 47% of Guaraní's.
What form are Sportivo San Lorenzo and Guaraní in?
Over the last 5 games Sportivo San Lorenzo have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Guaraní 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Guaraní?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.