SSC Farul vs Botoşani: match statistics

SSC Farul are clear favourites thanks to their perfect home record: they have won both matches so far, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding just 1.0 per game. The hosts also create significantly better chances, averaging 1.90 xG while allowing opponents just 0.82 xG, whereas Botoşani have 1.21 xG away from home and allow their opponents 2.17 xG. Farul also dominate possession, recording 60% possession and 8 shots on target per match, compared with Botoşani’s 44% possession and 3.33 shots on target. The visitors have failed to win any of their three away matches, losing two and conceding an average of as many as 2.33 goals, with their away run consisting of one draw and two defeats. Botoşani score regularly, so their finding the net cannot be ruled out, but Farul’s superiority in chance creation, defence and home form clearly points to a home win.

BTTS - Yes is primarily supported by Botoşani’s away matches: the team scores an average of 1.67 goals, concedes 2.33, and both sides have scored in 100% of such games. Farul should have excellent conditions to find the net, as they create an average of 1.90 xG at home and take 17.33 shots, while Botoşani allow opponents an average of 2.17 xG. In their last five matches, Farul recorded BTTS in 80% of games, compared with 60% for Botoşani, with each team scoring an average of 1.4 goals. The main risk to this pick is Farul’s strong home defence, which concedes only 0.33 goals per match over the season and keeps a clean sheet in 67% of appearances. However, the visitors’ attacking threat and their current xG of 1.74 provide slight support for a goal from both teams.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Botoşani average 1.67 goals scored away from home but concede as many as 2.33, clearly favoring at least two goals. Farul generate an average of 1.90 xG at home and take 17.33 shots per match, while the visitors’ defense allows an average of 2.17 xG. In their last five matches, both teams scored 1.4 goals per game, with Farul conceding 1.4 and Botoşani 1.2 goals. However, the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches and only 33% of their games have gone Over 1.5 goals, so the forecast does not give Over 2.5 the same level of support. The expected 2.95 goals indicate a realistic chance of three goals, but the safest and most probable selection remains Over 1.5 goals.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as both Farul and Botoşani were level at the break in 67% of their matches under these conditions. Farul have yet to score before half-time and have averaged 0.00 goals in the first half, but their defence has conceded just 0.33 goals; Botoşani, meanwhile, have averaged one first-half goal. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should grow: Farul have averaged 2.33 points per match in second halves, won them 67% of the time, and have not conceded a single goal after half-time. Botoşani have not won any second half, have conceded an average of 1.67 goals after the break, and allow opponents to score 2.33 goals per match away from home. In addition, Farul create an average of 1.90 xG compared with Botoşani’s 1.21 xG, so the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a home win has the strongest statistical backing.