St. Johnstone vs Hibernian: match statistics

St. Johnstone have home advantage, having won their only home match so far while averaging 4 goals from 15 shots and 55% possession. The hosts also create high-quality chances worth 1.71 xG, identical to Hibernian’s away figure, while allowing opponents just 1.02 xG. Hibernian are, however, in more consistent overall form, averaging 1.6 points across their last five matches compared with St. Johnstone’s 0.8, and have lost only 1 of those 5 games. The visitors have won both of their away matches to date and concede just 1 goal on average there, but their defence allows opponents 2.17 xG, which could be exploited by an efficient home side. A closely contested, high-scoring match is expected, but St. Johnstone’s superior defensive quality at home and possession advantage slightly favour a 1 result.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have scored in each of their league matches so far, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. St. Johnstone concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Hibernian score an average of 2.0 goals, which strongly supports an away goal. The hosts score only 1.0 goal per game but create chances worth 2.08 xG, while Hibernian allow opponents 2.17 xG per match. In their last five appearances, BTTS landed in 60% of St. Johnstone’s matches and 40% of Hibernian’s, so current form reduces confidence in the pick compared with the seasonal 100%. Nevertheless, the hosts average 19.0 shots, including 6.0 on target, making the most likely scenario one in which both teams find the net.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have cleared this line in 100% of their matches so far this season, while neither has kept a clean sheet. St. Johnstone average 2.08 xG and 19 shots at home, whereas Hibernian allow opponents 2.17 xG away from home, giving the hosts a solid foundation to score. The visitors average 2.0 goals away from home, while the hosts concede an average of 2.0 goals in such matches, so Hibernian should also make a significant contribution to the total. The more cautious picture from the last five matches, in which both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of cases, limits confidence in the 2.5 line but does not undermine the high probability of at least two goals. The projected total of 2.63 goals points to a match more likely to finish 1:1, 2:1 or 1:2 than a defensive contest with no more than one goal.

The most likely outcome is a draw both at half-time and at full-time, as St. Johnstone were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Hibernian. The opening phases are expected to be cautious: the hosts averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time, while the visitors averaged 0.4, with Hibernian keeping a clean sheet at the break in 80% of their last five appearances. Hibernian’s advantage over the full match is nevertheless clear — the team averaged 1.6 points per match across their last five league fixtures, compared with 0.8 for St. Johnstone, and conceded 0.8 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.6. Therefore, the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by an away win also carries a high probability of 21%, but Hibernian’s frequent draws after the break, recorded in 100% of this sample, further strengthen the X/X outcome.