St. Johnstone vs Queen's Park: match statistics

St. Johnstone are the clear favorite for this match, sitting top of the table with an impressive record of 17 wins and only 3 defeats. The hosts boast excellent home form with 60% wins and 53% clean sheets, conceding an average of just 0.67 goals per match at home. They are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), having scored 7 goals and conceded only 2. Queen's Park have significantly weaker away statistics – just 27% wins, 47% losses, and a negative goal difference (-9). The visitors concede an average of 1.73 goals per away match and have only 20% clean sheets, which, given St. Johnstone's offensive power (averaging 2 goals per home match), points to a high probability of a home victory.

Season-long BTTS stats for both sides are high (60% each), but their last 5 matches dampen this signal (BTTS at 40% for both), suggesting greater volatility than the full-season view. St. Johnstone have looked very solid defensively lately: conceding just 0.4 goals per match with 0.73 xGA over their last 5 games, which limits Queen’s Park's scoring chances. Queen’s Park has average attacking output (0.8 goals and 1.02 xG in last 5) and a 27% rate of failing to score, so they are not a team that regularly finds the net. Meanwhile, the hosts have solid reasoning to score themselves (1.4 goals and 1.59 xG in last 5), and the visitors' poor seasonal defensive record (1.73 goals conceded per match) increases the likelihood of a 1-0 or 2-0 scenario. Consequently, a scenario where mainly St. Johnstone scores, and BTTS does not land, is more probable.

The model based on average goals and xG indicates a moderate goal total (expected_goals_total = 2.32), which naturally favors the under on higher lines. St. Johnstone score 1.0 goals/match at home, and Queen’s Park concede as many as 1.73 away, but the hosts' xG (1.02) and the visitors' defensive xGA (1.56) suggest rather 1-2 goals for the hosts than a 'high-scoring' outcome. For the visitors, the forecast is limited by form: in their last 5 matches they score 0.8 goals, while St. Johnstone concede only 0.4 (last5_xg_against_home 0.73), which lowers the chance of a match with 4+ goals. Historical data supports this thesis: Over 3.5 occurs rarely (20% for St. Johnstone and 27% for Queen’s Park), and in the last 5 matches for both sides, Over 2.5 is only 20%. With BTTS at 60%, a scoreline like 1-1/2-1 is more likely than a very high-scoring scenario, which is why the best value is Under 3.5.

The strongest signal for the half-time result is a draw: St. Johnstone draws at HT in as many as 67% of matches, with low goal production in the first half (0.6 scored and 0.53 conceded per game). Queen’s Park has a significantly worse HT profile (0.93 goals conceded per game and a -8 goal difference), which limits their chances of taking a lead at the break despite scoring in the first half in 80% of matches. After the break, a turnaround in favor of the hosts is more likely, as over the season Queen’s Park loses 47% of matches and concedes an average of 1.73 goals. Additionally, the recent form over the last 5 matches favors St. Johnstone (2.2 PPG and only 0.4 goals conceded) compared to Queen’s Park (1.4 PPG). Therefore, the most probable HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a St. Johnstone win by full-time.