St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone: match statistics

St. Mirren have produced the stronger run of form over their last five matches, winning 4 games and collecting 12 points, while St. Johnstone recorded 3 wins, a draw and a defeat for a total of 10 points. The hosts scored 14 goals during this period, averaging 2.8 per match, clearly more than the visitors’ 10, which indicates greater attacking consistency. St. Mirren have also been slightly more solid defensively, conceding 4 goals in five appearances compared with 5 for St. Johnstone. The visitors opened the campaign with a 4:3 victory, but conceding three goals in that match highlighted their defensive vulnerability when facing opposition chances. St. Mirren’s superior current attacking form and home advantage point towards a narrow home win.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily based on St. Mirren’s recent defensive efficiency: across five matches, the team conceded just 4 goals, averaging 0.8 per game, while BTTS landed in only 20% of those fixtures. St. Johnstone have averaged 2.0 goals over their last five matches, but both teams scored in only 40% of their games, pointing to frequent fixtures where only one side found the net. The hosts are in good form, scoring 14 goals in five rounds and recording an average xG of 2.03, while their opponents allowed just 0.75 xG, making a scenario in which one side controls the result without conceding a clean sheet more likely. The league records a high BTTS rate of 67%, but the combination of both teams’ low recent figures and St. Mirren’s solid defence provides a stronger argument that at least one team will fail to score.

St. Mirren averaged 2.8 goals scored across their last five matches, while St. Johnstone averaged 2.0, providing a clear foundation for at least two goals. The hosts generated an xG of 2.03 during this period, compared with 1.84 for the visitors, meaning both attacks are regularly creating high-quality chances. However, the defenses conceded relatively few goals—0.8 per match for St. Mirren and 1.0 for St. Johnstone—so the Over 2.5 line does not offer as strong a safety margin. Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of the hosts’ last five matches and 40% of the visitors’ games, while the 1.5 threshold is considerably more resilient to a cautious, tight match. The projected total of 2.90 goals indicates that the best choice is Over 1.5.

St. Mirren have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding just 0.8, while St. Johnstone have recorded 3 victories over the same period, with an average of 2.0 goals scored. The hosts have been leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% for the visitors; the away side have most often gone into half-time level, doing so in 60% of cases. St. Mirren’s first-half advantage is also reflected in their average of 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded before the break, compared with 0.6 goals scored by St. Johnstone. After the interval, the hosts remain highly effective, averaging 1.8 goals and winning the second half in 80% of their last five appearances. St. Johnstone are in good form, making a draw at half-time followed by a home win a significant alternative, but the strongest signal points to St. Mirren leading after 45 minutes and maintaining their advantage until full-time.