St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians: match statistics

St Patrick's Athletic have the offensive edge: they have scored 21 goals this season, average 2.17 goals per home game and their home xG is 2.12, while Bohemians have 14 goals this season and score an average of 1.17 goals away with an xG of 1.81. In the last 5 matches the home side have scored 12 goals and won 3 of 5 (record 3-0-2), whereas the visitors have only 4 goals and have not won any of their last 5 (0-3-2), which indicates better form for St Patrick's. Chance-creation stats also favor the hosts: St Patrick's average 19 shots at home with 6.83 on target and an 11% conversion rate, versus 17 shots, 5.83 on target and a 7% conversion rate for Bohemians. On the other hand Bohemians show strong defensive numbers away — conceding only 0.33 goals on average and keeping 83% clean sheets on the road — although they have recently conceded 6 goals in five matches, while St Patrick's have conceded 8 in their last five. Considering the hosts' advantage in creating and converting chances and the visitors' weaker recent efficiency, I tip a St Patrick's win; proposed probability split is 60% home, 25% draw, 15% away.

I assign a 60% probability to BTTS - Yes and 40% to No Goal. The last 5 matches deliver a strong signal for both teams: St Patrick's scored 12 goals in their last five (2.4 per match), while Bohemians scored 4 and conceded 6 (0.8 scored, 1.2 conceded), which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Seasonally there is a counterpoint: St Patrick's has BTTS in 67% of matches, whereas Bohemians only in 17% and keep a clean sheet in 83% of games with an average 0.33 goals conceded. The offensive potential is real — last 5 matches xG is 1.92 vs 1.97, and season xG is 1.65 vs 1.81 with a similar number of shots on target (5.67 vs 5.83). I weight the form from the last 5 matches higher than Bohemians’ seasonal defensive stability, therefore 'Yes' is the strongest signal.

Based on xG and defensive data I calculated expected goals: home ~1.33 (xG for 1.65 vs opponent xG conceded 1.00), away ~1.42 (xG for 1.81 vs opponent xG conceded 1.03), totaling 2.75 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.75 indicates ~76% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~52% for Over 2.5 goals and ~30% for Over 3.5 goals, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Form supports this: St Patrick's scored 12 goals in 5 matches (avg 2.4) while Bohemians only 4 goals in 5 matches (0.8), and recent xG were 1.92 vs 1.97, which increases the probability of at least two goals. Offsetting factors are Bohemians' season figures — only 0.33 goals conceded on the road and 83% clean sheets — and the fact that both teams have 33% of season matches Over 2.5 goals, therefore Over 2.5 is only marginally favored (52%). Consequently I recommend betting Over 1.5 (line 1.5, over) as the most reliable option given expected goals 1.33–1.42 (total 2.75).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time, as both teams record a half-time draw in 50% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home and drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 50%) and the average goals by half are low: 0.83 for the home side versus 0.67 for the away side. After the break Bohemians have the edge: they possess a higher xG (1.81 versus the home 1.65), a higher season points average (1.83 versus 1.5) and an overall 50% win rate this season (winPercentage_away = 50%), which increases the chance of a post-break victory. Additionally, Bohemians practically do not concede after the break (conceded_2hg_avg_away = 0.0), have a positive second-half goal difference (gd_2hg_away = 5.0) and have scored 3 goals in the 61–75 minute window (goals_scored_min_61_to_75_away = 3), suggesting a conversion of a draw into a lead. The home side, however, are in form (averaging 2.4 goals in the last 5 matches and leading at half-time in 60% of that run), so X/X and 1/1 outcomes also carry significant probability; taking all this into account, I back X/2 (draw at half-time, away win).