St. Pauli vs Bayern München: match statistics

Statistically the favorite is Bayern: the visitors have scored 100 goals this season versus St. Pauli’s 25 and have 23 wins compared to the hosts’ 6. Recent form also favors the Munich side — Bayern scored 14 goals in the last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, averaging 2.6 points per match), while St. Pauli managed only 3 goals and averaged 1.0 point per match. Bayern dominates in chance quality and possession: 66% possession vs 46%, 8.21 shots on target per match away compared to the hosts’ 4.38, and higher shot conversion (18% vs 10%), with xG 2.13 vs the hosts’ 1.34. Defensively St. Pauli concedes 1.54 goals at home on average, has only 15% clean sheets and 38% of matches without scoring, whereas Bayern concedes 1.0 goal away, has 36% clean sheets and 0% of away matches without scoring. Given these differentials (including average goals per match 3.14 vs 1.08 and away goal difference +30 vs the hosts’ -6), the most likely outcome is an away win.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 64% (St. Pauli 64% and Bayern 64%) versus a league average of 60%, indicating goals at both ends in most fixtures. Bayern possesses massive attacking potency — 100 goals this season and 3.14 average away goals — while St. Pauli have conceded 45 goals this season and allow 0.93 at home, so Bayern is almost certain to score. In the last 5 matches Bayern have netted 14 goals (2.8 per game) with last5 xG 2.36, whereas St. Pauli have only 3 goals in their last 5 (0.6 per game) with xG 1.15; however St. Pauli’s home xG is 2.47 and they average 9.14 shots on target at home, providing a realistic chance of an honour goal. Additionally, 100% of St. Pauli’s matches this season are over 2.5 and 93% of Bayern’s matches are over 2.5, and the over 2.5 + BTTS combination occurs for hosts in 64% and for away sides in 56% of cases — this reinforces the both-teams-to-score scenario. Given these figures, I estimate BTTS at 70% versus 30% for No BTTS and tip "yes" (BTTS - Yes).

The match looks offensively open: St. Pauli has home xG of 2.47, Bayern away xG of 2.13, with Bayern scoring 100 goals this season and St. Pauli 25. Both teams frequently produce high-scoring results — matches over 2.5 goals: 100% for St. Pauli and 93% for Bayern, and over 3.5: 79% and 71% respectively. Additionally, both teams score in 64% of meetings, and average shots on target are 9.14 for the hosts and 8.21 for the visitors with conversion rates of 19% and 18%. As an approximate expected goals estimate I take the average of a team’s offense and the opponent’s defense: St. Pauli ≈(2.47+1.18)/2=1.83, Bayern ≈(2.13+0.94)/2=1.54, total ≈3.37 goals. Based on this the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (probability ~86%) — Over 1.5 is virtually certain (~97%), while Over 3.5 has a moderately high chance (~68%).

St. Pauli led at the break in 11 matches (79%) and scores an average of 2.07 goals before the break, while Bayern averages 0.93 goals by half-time; this is a strong signal in favor of the home side after 45 minutes. However, Bayern are very active after the break: the visitors score an average of 2.21 goals in second halves and win 79% of second halves, and in their last 5 matches their form is 'dwwww' with an 80% win rate. Considering the combination of St. Pauli’s 79% lead at the break and Bayern’s average of 2.21 goals after the break, the most likely scenario appears to be St. Pauli leading at half-time with Bayern winning after 90 minutes (HT/FT = 1/2), which I assign a 35% probability. Additionally, I assign 25% to St. Pauli holding the lead until the end (1/1) given the home side’s 86% overall win rate and 10% to 1/X; I assess the probability of the visitors leading at the break as effectively 0% (St. Pauli has never been behind at half-time, trailingAtHT_home = 0).