St. Pölten vs Liefering: match statistics

St. Pölten are the clear favorites: at home they score an average of 2.25 goals per match versus 0.82 goals that Liefering score away, giving the hosts a +1.43 goal advantage. The hosts register more shots on target (5.58 vs 4.55) and have a markedly higher conversion rate (18% vs 7%), while also failing in attack less often (FTS 8% vs 45%), so they create and convert more chances. Defensively St. Pölten concede on average 0.92 goals at home compared to 1.36 conceded by Liefering away, and a clean sheet rate of 42% vs 27% shows greater defensive stability for the hosts. Additionally, in the last 5 matches the hosts have 4 wins and average 2.4 points per game, whereas Liefering have 2 wins and 1.2 points per game; the home goal difference is +16 versus the visitors' -6. Although average xG are similar (1.61 vs 1.6), St. Pölten converts that potential into goals far more efficiently, so I forecast a home win.

St. Pölten averages 2.0 goals scored per season with xG 1.72 and a shot conversion rate of 14%, whereas Liefering averages only 0.82 goals with xG 1.60 and a conversion of just 7%. The percentage of matches without a goal is 23% for St. Pölten and 45% for Liefering, giving a simple combined probability (0.77×0.55) of roughly 42% for BTTS as a starting point. However, in the last 5 matches St. Pölten scored 9 and conceded 4 (1.8 and 0.8 avg.), while Liefering have 6 scored and 9 conceded (1.2 and 1.8), indicating the hosts have recently been less likely to concede. Additionally, season-long BTTS is 62% for the home side and only 36% for the visitors, and the visitors' low finishing efficiency (7% conversion) increases the risk that only the hosts will score; therefore I downgrade the BTTS estimate below the starting point. Final forecast is about 38% for BTTS (Yes) and 62% for No BTTS (No), hence the recommendation: no.

The combined xG for both teams is 1.72 + 1.60 = 3.32, suggesting roughly 3.32 expected goals in this match. St. Pölten score an average of 2.0 goals at home and have 69% of matches Over 2.5, while Liefering average 0.82 goals away but their xG of 1.60 points to finishing issues (conversion rate only 7%). In the last 5 matches St. Pölten scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and conceded 4 (0.8), and Liefering scored 6 goals (1.2) and conceded 9 (1.8), which together increases the potential for a higher-scoring game. Given the total xG = 3.32, the high season Over 0.5 rates (92% and 91%) and St. Pölten’s 69% share of Over 2.5, the strongest signal is an Over play, particularly the 1.5 line (I assess it at about a 90% probability). Over 2.5 also shows a clear edge (around 68%), while the 3.5 line remains less likely (approximately 33% Over).

St. Pölten holds a clear advantage: they win 54% of matches and score an average of 2.0 goals per game versus 0.82 for Liefering, while at half-time the hosts average 1.15 goals compared to 0.18 for the visitors. The hosts led at the break in 38% of matches (vs 9% for Liefering) and accumulated 21 points at half-time with an average of 1.62 points, versus 8 points and 0.73 for their opponents, giving them a superior position heading into the second half. Additionally, St. Pölten’s xG is 1.72 compared to 1.60 for Liefering, and their shot conversion rate is 14% vs 7% with 5.23 shots on target per game vs 4.55, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead and converting chances into goals. In the short term St. Pölten won 4 of their last 5 matches (wwwwl), while Liefering have 2 wins in their last 5 (wlllw). Based on this, I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (32%), the second strongest signal is X/1 (21%), therefore I recommend a 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time selection.