Stabæk vs Moss: match statistics

Stabæk are clear favourites: they sit 3rd, while Moss are 14th, and the hosts have won 13 of their 20 league matches, suffering just 4 defeats. At home, Stabæk win 89% of their matches, score an average of 3.22 goals and have failed to score in none of their games, whereas Moss lose 70% of their away fixtures and concede as many as 2.50 goals per match. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in chance creation: they average 16.89 shots and an xG of 1.99, compared with 13.5 shots and an xG of 1.64 for the visitors. Stabæk have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 15 goals in that run, while Moss have managed just 1 win and 5 points over the same period. The visitors are capable of creating danger, but their lack of clean sheets away from home and high goals-conceded rate should ultimately decide the match in favour of the hosts.

BTTS - Yes looks very strong, as the percentage of matches in which both teams scored stands at 90% for Stabæk and 80% for Moss, well above the league average of 63%. Stabæk have failed to keep a clean sheet in 90% of their matches, while Moss have not kept a single clean sheet, strongly supporting a goal for both sides. Both attacks create a similar number of chances, with average xG of 1.63 for the hosts and 1.64 for the visitors, alongside high average goals conceded: 2.0 and 2.5, respectively. In their last five matches, Stabæk averaged 3.0 goals scored and Moss 2.0, while BTTS occurred in 60% and 80% of those games, respectively. Further confirmation of their attacking profile comes from the fact that 80% of matches involving both teams featured at least three goals and goals from both sides.

This is shaping up to be a high-scoring game: Stabæk score an average of 1.6 goals, while Moss concede as many as 2.5 goals per match. In their last five matches, the hosts scored 3.0 goals per game and recorded an xG of 2.11, while Moss scored 2.0 goals per match. Both teams regularly feature in open games, with over 1.5 goals recorded in 90% of Stabæk’s matches and in all of Moss’s matches, while over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% and 100% of cases, respectively. Their weak defenses provide an additional argument: Stabæk keep a clean sheet in only 10% of matches, while Moss do so in 0%, with average xG against figures of 1.65 and 1.72. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as it requires just two goals to land, while the data from both teams and the league average of 3.87 goals clearly support this scenario.

A draw at half-time followed by a Stabæk win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Moss. Across the season, Moss were trailing at half-time in 60% of their matches, while Stabæk earned twice as many points per game before the break: 1.2 versus 0.6. After the interval, the hosts have been particularly strong in their current form: they average 2.2 goals scored and concede just 0.6 goals per second half, while Moss record 1.6 and 0.8 respectively. Stabæk have won four of their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals in those games, whereas Moss have won only once, further supporting the scenario of the hosts taking control after the break. Both teams have a similar attacking potential according to xG—1.63 for Stabæk and 1.64 for Moss—so the hosts’ advantage should become more apparent only in the second half.