Stal Kraśnik vs KSZO: match statistics

KSZO performs markedly better in the numbers: the visitors have 16 wins and 52 goals scored this season versus Stal’s 5 wins and 29 goals. In the last 5 matches Stal collected 0 points (0-0-5), scoring only 2 goals and conceding 11, while KSZO is 3-1-1 with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. Offensively on the road KSZO averages 2.15 goals, 4.63 shots on target and a 22% conversion rate, whereas Stal at home averages 1.54 goals, 3.33 shots on target and only 6% conversion. Defensively the gap is clear: KSZO concedes 0.69 goals per away game and has 38% clean sheets, while Stal at home concedes 1.77 goals and has 0% clean sheets. Considering form (Stal 0 pts vs KSZO ~2 pts over last 5), the xG differential (1.45 for KSZO vs 1.31 for Stal) and the superior efficiency of the visitors, I forecast a KSZO win and assess their probability at 70%.

I back BTTS - Yes with a strong signal: both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 62% (Stal 62%, KSZO 62%) vs. league average 56%. Seasonal goals averages are 1.85 scored and 1.00 conceded for Stal, and 2.15 scored and 0.69 conceded for KSZO; attacking xG are 1.51 vs 1.45, and xG conceded 1.31 vs 1.21, indicating both sides generate roughly 1.2–1.5 xG per match. In the last 5 matches Stal’s BTTS is 40% with 2 goals scored and 11 conceded (avg. 0.4 scored, 2.2 conceded), while KSZO’s BTTS is 60% with 7 scored and 4 conceded (avg. 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded), so KSZO is in better offensive form. Stal averages 14.25 shots (4.63 on target) vs KSZO 11.13 (4.63 on target), and conversion rates are 15% vs 22%, which suggests that despite poorer form Stal still creates chances and can score. Considering the seasonal 62% BTTS for both teams, the league 56% benchmark, recent form and xG, I assess BTTS probability at 68% (YES) vs 32% (NO).

Based on xG: the home side has xG_for 1.51 while the away xG_against is 1.21, yielding about 1.36 expected goals for Stal Kraśnik; for KSZO xG_for 1.45 with home xG_against 1.31 gives about 1.38 goals, totaling ≈2.74 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.74 computes roughly 76% probability for Over 1.5, ~52% for Over 2.5 and ~30% for Over 3.5, which aligns with seasonal indicators (Over 1.5: 77% home, 69% away; Over 2.5: 69% home, 54% away). Both teams have BTTS 62%; Stal averages 1.85 goals/match, KSZO 2.15, and in the last 5 matches Stal scored 2 and conceded 11 (0.4 avg), while KSZO scored 7 and conceded 4 (1.4 avg), increasing the likelihood of goals. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: Over) — xG=2.74, high seasonal Over 1.5 rates and BTTS 62% provide a clear edge for at least 2 goals.

I back X/2 (draw at Half-Time, KSZO to win Full-Time) because KSZO win 77% of matches this season and have a 60% win rate in their last five games, while Stal have lost all five of their most recent matches. I expect a draw at the break since Stal record draws at half-time 50% of the time and KSZO 63%, and the percentage of clean halves to half-time is 83% for Stal and 75% for KSZO, suggesting a low number of goals before the break. After the break KSZO have the edge: the visitors average 2.0 points in the second half and concede only 0.13 goals after half-time, whereas the hosts concede an average of 0.67 goals post-break. Additionally, KSZO’s shot conversion rate is 22% versus 15% for the hosts, and the visitors’ xG is 1.45 compared with Stal’s average xG conceded of 1.31, indicating the visitors will capitalize on opportunities after the break.