Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań: match statistics
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Stal Mielec played Warta Poznań in 1. Liga (Poland). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Stadion MOSiR. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Stal Mielec: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Warta Poznań: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Stal Mielec scores 1.56 and concedes 2.56 goals per match. Warta Poznań scores 1.89 and concedes 1.44. League average: 2.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Stal Mielec 78%, Warta Poznań 56%. Over 2.5: Stal Mielec 67%, Warta Poznań 78%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Warta Poznań has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.55. Stal Mielec: 13.9 shots per match, Warta Poznań: 13.9.
Match halves
Stal Mielec: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67. Warta Poznań: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Stal Mielec: 0-15 (3 goals). Warta Poznań: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1. Liga: 2.76 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Warta Poznań are fourth in the table, while Stal Mielec sit 16th. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, whereas the hosts have not won any during that period. The biggest difference is in defence: Stal have conceded 15 goals in their last 5 games, compared with just 5 for Warta. The hosts remain dangerous at home, however, averaging 2.2 goals per match with an xG of 1.59, slightly higher than Warta’s away xG of 1.56. Their edge in finishing does not offset their current defensive problems, making the visitors slight favourites, although Warta’s 57% away-loss rate calls for caution.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The case for BTTS - Yes is supported by Stal averaging 3.0 goals in home matches and scoring in every one of them, while Warta kept a clean sheet in only 29% of away matches. The visitors also have a genuine chance of scoring: they averaged 1.57 goals away from home, while Stal conceded an average of as many as 3.0 goals in its last five matches. The attacking potential of both teams is reflected in their average xG figures of 1.67 for Stal and 1.56 for Warta. The main risk to this pick is Stal's 50% home clean-sheet rate; however, BTTS landed in 80% of its last five matches, so I consider both teams to score the more likely scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Stal matches have averaged 4.0 goals, while Warta matches have averaged 3.14; at least two goals were scored in 100% and 71% of those matches, respectively. Stal averages 1.67 xG, and Warta 1.56 xG, indicating attacking potential on both sides. In addition, Stal conceded an average of 3.0 goals over its last five matches, while Warta scored an average of 1.6 goals over the same period. Over 1.5 goals has the strongest support in the data; the 2.5-goal line is less certain, despite being surpassed in 60% of each team's last five matches.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal in Warta’s favor is their form over the last five matches: they won three times, while Stal failed to win once and conceded an average of 3.0 goals. Stal were trailing at the break in four of those five matches, while Warta were never behind at half-time and led twice. Warta’s ability to preserve a potential lead is supported by the fact that they drew the second half in 71% of their away matches. However, the 2/2 scenario is not a certainty: Stal won the second half in both of the home matches considered, so a turnaround remains a realistic possibility.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Stal Mielec | Warta Poznań | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Warta Poznań is 800% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Stal Mielec · 1.8 pts / match - Warta Poznań
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Warta Poznań is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.56 goals / match - Stal Mielec · 1.89 goals / match - Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań is 78% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.56 goals / match - Stal Mielec · 1.44 goals / match - Warta Poznań
Stal Mielec scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Warta Poznań keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
Warta Poznań scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Stal Mielec keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Stal Mielec
Over / Under - Warta Poznań
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Warta Poznań is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.22 pts / match - Stal Mielec · 1.67 pts / match - Warta Poznań
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Stal Mielec - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 22%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Warta Poznań - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -8 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Stal Mielec
Warta Poznań
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Stal Mielec | Liga | Warta Poznań | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.11 | 2.76 | ▲ 3.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 78% | 56% | • 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 51% | ▲ 78% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 24% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 77% | ▲ 89% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▲ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Warta PoznańSubstitutionOn: Kacper WybieralskiOff: Kacper Szymanek
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
The 1. Liga match finished Stal Mielec 2:1 Warta Poznań. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Stal Mielec score 1.56 goals per game on average and Warta Poznań 1.89. The 1. Liga average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 78% of Stal Mielec's matches and 56% of Warta Poznań's.
What form are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań in?
Over the last 5 games Stal Mielec have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Warta Poznań 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.