Stargard Szczeciński vs Flota Świnoujście: match statistics

Stargard Szczeciński has the advantage in chance creation: at home they average 12.42 shots with 5.25 on target and generate 1.54 xG, translating to 1.75 goals per game, while Flota away averages 8.75 shots, 3.42 on target, xG 1.10 and 1.63 goals per game. In the last 5 matches the hosts conceded only 2 goals (0.4 per game) and are unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws), whereas Flota conceded 6 goals (1.2 per game) and have a 2-1-2 record. Additionally Stargard controls the ball on average 63% possession and allows a lower xG against (1.14 in home matches) than Flota on the road (xG against 1.92), which suggests less risk of dangerous situations for the hosts. On the other hand Flota is more efficient with fewer shots: their conversion rate is 17% versus Stargard’s 13% and they have a lower share of goalless matches (13% vs 19%), so they can be dangerous with limited opportunities. Considering the higher number of clear chances for the hosts and better defence over the last 5 matches (Stargard 1.8 points per game vs 1.4 for Flota), I tip a home win and probability distribution 60%/20%/20%.

Seasonal BTTS indicators favor YES: Stargard 53% and Flota 63%, versus the league average of 52%. Both teams have seasonal goal averages that support both teams scoring — Stargard scores 1.29 and concedes 1.29 per match, while Flota scores 1.63 and concedes 1.69. Additionally, xG points to realistic chances of goals from both sides: home xG 1.39 versus Flota’s defensive xG 1.92, and Flota xG 1.10 versus the home side’s defensive xG 1.44. A counterpoint is recent form over the last 5 rounds — BTTS has dropped to 40% for both teams, and the hosts have conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 matches (0.4 per match), which slightly reduces the likelihood of an away goal. Considering the prevailing seasonal signals and goal/xG values, I tip BTTS - Yes with an estimated 62% versus 38% for No.

xG estimates and seasonal averages yield a combined expected total of about 2.93 goals. Specific breakdown: the home side has xG_for 1.39, while Flota concedes xG 1.92, which together gives roughly 1.66 goals for Stargard; visitors have xG_for 1.10, and the hosts concede xG 1.44, yielding about 1.27 goals for Flota. Seasonal Over indicators confirm a propensity for goals: Over 1.5 occurred in 71% of Stargard’s matches and 75% of Flota’s, Over 2.5 in 59%/56%, and both teams scored in 53%/63% of games. Additionally, Stargard averages 10.88 shots and 5.13 on target with a 14% conversion, Flota 8.75 shots and 3.42 on target with a 17% conversion, and in the last 5 matches the home side averaged 1.6 goals while Flota conceded 1.2 goals on average, supporting a minimum-two-goal scenario. A Poisson model with lambda=2.93 prices Over 1.5 at ~79% (Over 2.5 56%, Over 3.5 34%), therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

At half-time I expect the home side to hold the lead: in the last 5 matches Stargard led at the break in 60% (3 of 5) and averaged 1.0 goals by half-time while conceding 0.0, whereas Flota led at the break in only 20% and averages 0.4 goals by half-time. A draw after 90 minutes is indicated, however, by Flota’s form and second-half dynamics: Flota averages 1.63 points per match this season versus Stargard’s 1.35, has a 50% win rate compared to the home side’s 35%, and its matches record an average of 1.75 goals in the second half (vs 1.53 for Stargard), with as many as 94% of Flota’s games featuring at least one goal after the break. Additionally, Stargard finished matches level in 60% of their last 5 fixtures, suggesting that a lead at the break often does not translate into a full-time victory. Therefore the strongest signal is the 1/X scenario (home team leads at Half-Time, draw at Full-Time), which I assign roughly a 30% probability as the preferred pick.