Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II: match statistics

Lech Poznań II have a clear edge in the away fixture played so far: they won it, averaged 5 goals scored, and created chances worth 2.47 xG. The visitors also dominate in chance creation, averaging 21 shots and 10 on target with 61% possession, while Stargard at home record 16 attempts, 4 shots on target, and 1.62 xG. However, the hosts are in better current form, picking up 8 points from their last 5 matches and conceding only 5 goals in that span, compared with the 12 conceded by Lech II. Lech’s away defence leaves room for improvement, conceding an average of 2 goals and failing to keep a clean sheet. Despite the risk of the hosts finding the net, the reserves’ superior quality and the volume of chances they create point towards an away win.

The BTTS signal is very strong, as both teams have recorded this outcome in 100% of their matches so far this season, compared with the league average of 67%. In their last five fixtures, each side had BTTS in 80% of cases; Stargard averaged 2.0 goals, while Lech II averaged 1.8. The hosts create plenty of chances, as confirmed by an xG of 2.23 across their last five matches, while Lech’s reserve side conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game during this period. The visitors also have attacking arguments: they average 21 shots and 10 shots on target, with a season xG of 2.47, while Stargard are yet to keep a clean sheet. The biggest risk to the pick is Lech II’s weaker form, but their average of 1.8 goals across five matches and the hosts’ defensive numbers still strongly support a BTTS - Yes scenario.

The latest form points to a goal-filled match: Stargard averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Lech’s reserves conceded as many as 2.4 goals. The hosts generated an xG of 2.23 during this period, compared with 1.97 for Lech II, supporting a projection of 3.40 total goals. At least 3 goals were scored in 3 of Stargard’s last 5 matches and in 4 of Lech’s last 5, while both teams found the net in 80% of these games. Lech II average 21 shots and 10 shots on target, so despite the hosts’ stronger defensive record, the visitors should create scoring opportunities. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as both teams have scored and conceded in every match so far this season, while their recent form clearly makes a one-goal maximum scenario unlikely.

Over their last five matches, Stargard have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Lech II have scored 1.8 and allowed opponents 2.4 goals per game. The hosts led at the break in 60% of those fixtures, compared with just 25% for Lech II, and also conceded only 0.4 goals per match before half-time, versus 1.5 for the visitors. The results-based form also favours Stargard: a 40% win rate and just 20% defeats in their last five appearances contrasts with Lech II’s 60% loss rate. However, the visitors remain dangerous offensively, averaging 2.47 xG and 10 shots on target per match, which is why HT/FT draw scenarios and potential turnarounds have been given significant consideration. Nevertheless, the strongest scenario remains Stargard leading at half-time and holding on to their advantage until the final whistle.