Stargard Szczeciński vs Victoria Września: match statistics
Stargard Szczeciński clearly outperforms Victoria Września in both offensive and defensive aspects. The hosts score an average of 1.73 goals per home match with an xG of 1.44, while the visitors net only 0.5 goals per away game with an xG of 1.14. Victoria has a dismal away record with 80% losses and only 20% wins, conceding an average of 1.2 goals with an xG Against of 1.75. Stargard boasts a significantly better conversion rate (16% vs 6%) and possession dominance (68% vs 52%). The hosts' goal difference in home matches is +3, while the visitors have -7 away, further confirming Stargard's superiority. The form of both teams in the last five matches also favors the hosts, who have earned 1.2 points per match compared to the visitors' 0.8.
Stargard Szczeciński vs Victoria Września: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Stargard Szczeciński played Victoria Września in 3 Liga Group 2 (Poland). The match was played on 28 March 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Stargard Szczeciński: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Victoria Września: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Stargard Szczeciński scores 1.61 and concedes 1.52 goals per match. Victoria Września scores 1.05 and concedes 1.45. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Stargard Szczeciński 57%, Victoria Września 45%. Over 2.5: Stargard Szczeciński 61%, Victoria Września 50%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 57%.
xG, shots and style
Stargard Szczeciński has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.18. Stargard Szczeciński: 8.6 shots per match, Victoria Września: 2.8.
Match halves
Stargard Szczeciński: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.87. Victoria Września: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.32.
Goals by minute
Stargard Szczeciński: 76-90+ (13 goals). Victoria Września: 0-15 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3 Liga Group 2: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 57%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Stargard Szczeciński clearly outperforms Victoria Września in both offensive and defensive aspects. The hosts score an average of 1.73 goals per home match with an xG of 1.44, while the visitors net only 0.5 goals per away game with an xG of 1.14. Victoria has a dismal away record with 80% losses and only 20% wins, conceding an average of 1.2 goals with an xG Against of 1.75. Stargard boasts a significantly better conversion rate (16% vs 6%) and possession dominance (68% vs 52%). The hosts' goal difference in home matches is +3, while the visitors have -7 away, further confirming Stargard's superiority. The form of both teams in the last five matches also favors the hosts, who have earned 1.2 points per match compared to the visitors' 0.8.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Stargard has a very high seasonal BTTS rate (64%) coupled with a weak defense: conceding 1.82 goals per match and a high 2.47 xG against, with a low clean sheet percentage (18%). This significantly increases the likelihood that Victoria will score, despite their low away goal average (0.5) and frequent failure to score (FTS 50%). Simultaneously, Victoria concedes an average of 1.2 goals and has a high xG against (1.75), thus creating favorable conditions for the hosts to score at least one goal (seasonal average 1.36 goals). The last 5 matches provide mixed signals (BTTS: Stargard 20%, Victoria 60%), but both teams averaged 1.0 goal scored per match in that period while conceding 1.6 and 1.4 respectively. Overall, Stargard's defensive profile and the xG statistics for both sides tip the assessment slightly towards 'BTTS - Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Stargard's matches are characterized by high goal volatility: they average 1.36 goals scored and a high 1.82 goals conceded. Their xG against (2.47) indicates they regularly allow opponents very good scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Victoria has a low average of goals scored (0.50) and a high rate of failing to score (FTS 50%), which caps the potential scoreline and shifts the projected total towards 2-3 goals. From an Over/Under market perspective, the base for at least 2 goals is solid: Over 0.5 stands at 91% (home) and 100% (away), while Stargard also has a 91% rate for Over 1.5. In the last 5 matches, both teams have frequently been involved in Over 2.5 games (80% and 60%), boosting the projection beyond their seasonal averages alone. With a league average of 2.93 goals, the expected total of 2.75 is consistent with the data, but the greatest edge comes from the safer line of Over 1.5. Therefore, the best play is Over 1.5 as the strongest and most probable signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest HT signal is the home team's advantage: Stargard leads at the break in 45% of matches, while Victoria has only an 11% HT lead rate along with a very high percentage of conceding the first goal in the first half (78%) and just 0.22 goals scored per first half. Over the longer term, Victoria loses 80% of matches and does not record draws (0%), which favors outcomes in the opponent's favor. Although xG suggests that the visitors are capable of generating chances (xG for 1.14 vs 0.87), their actual efficiency this season is low (0.5 goals per match), which limits the chances of a turnaround. Stargard has poor defense over the full match (1.82 conceded; xG against 2.47), which is why I give more weight to options involving changes after the break (X/1, 2/2), but maintaining the home advantage (1/1) remains the most probable outcome. Additionally, the home team's trend of scoring in the second half (82% over 0.5 goals) increases the likelihood that, if leading at halftime, they will secure the result thanks to further chances late in the game.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Stargard Szczeciński | Victoria Września | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 10% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.47 | 3.89 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Stargard Szczeciński is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Stargard Szczeciński · 0.8 pts / match - Victoria Września
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Stargard Szczeciński is 53% better for: goals scored per match.
1.61 goals / match - Stargard Szczeciński · 1.05 goals / match - Victoria Września
Victoria Września is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.52 goals / match - Stargard Szczeciński · 1.45 goals / match - Victoria Września
Stargard Szczeciński scores in 74% of matches (17 of 23 matches), while Victoria Września keeps a clean sheet in 23% (5 of 22 matches).
Victoria Września scores in 64% of matches (14 of 22 matches), while Stargard Szczeciński keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Stargard Szczeciński
Over / Under - Victoria Września
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Stargard Szczeciński is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.39 pts / match - Stargard Szczeciński · 1.23 pts / match - Victoria Września
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Stargard Szczeciński - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Victoria Września - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Stargard Szczeciński
Victoria Września
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3 Liga Group 2).
Teams vs league
| Stargard Szczeciński | Liga | Victoria Września | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.13 | 2.94 | ▼ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 51% | ▼ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 61% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 28% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 87% | 71% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 72% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Stargard Szczeciński 1 - 0 - 0 Victoria Września. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Stargard Szczeciński vs Victoria Września?
The 3 Liga Group 2 match finished Stargard Szczeciński 2:3 Victoria Września. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Stargard Szczeciński vs Victoria Września?
Stargard Szczeciński score 1.61 goals per game on average and Victoria Września 1.05. The 3 Liga Group 2 average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 57% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Stargard Szczeciński's matches and 45% of Victoria Września's.
What form are Stargard Szczeciński and Victoria Września in?
Over the last 5 games Stargard Szczeciński have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Victoria Września 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Stargard Szczeciński vs Victoria Września?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.