Start vs Brann: match statistics

Brann sit 7th, while Start are only 16th, and over the course of the season the visitors have scored 37 goals compared with the hosts’ 20. Current form also favors Brann: they have lost just once in their last five matches and conceded 5 goals, whereas Start have suffered 3 defeats and allowed 8 goals. Away from home, Brann average 2.11 goals per match, compared with Start’s 1.11 at home, while their shot conversion rate stands at 18% versus the hosts’ meager 7%. The visitors create fewer chances according to xG, 1.39 compared with 1.58, but register more shots on target per match, 4.56 to 3.78, and are far less likely to fail to score: 11% compared with 33%. Start can still pose a threat, as Brann concede an average of 1.56 goals away from home, but the hosts’ poor defensive record—conceding 1.67 goals per home match and keeping a clean sheet in just 11% of games—gives the visitors a clear advantage.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are very high: Start record BTTS in 80% of their matches, while Brann do so in 78%, both clearly above the league average of 56%. Start score an average of 1.80 goals but concede 1.50, whereas Brann score 2.11 goals per match and allow opponents an average of 1.56 goals. The hosts create chances worth 2.09 xG per match, while Brann average 4.56 shots on target and have an 18% finishing rate, supporting their chances of scoring. In their last five matches, Start recorded BTTS in only 40% of cases, but still generated 2.03 xG and conceded 8 goals, so their weaker scoring output appears more temporary than permanent. The BTTS - Yes pick is stronger because both teams very rarely finish matches without scoring — in 10% and 11% of matches respectively.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals: Start’s matches went over 1.5 goals in 90% of cases, while Brann’s did so in 89%. The hosts create an average of 2.09 xG and record 17.0 shots per match, while Brann’s defense allows an average of 1.73 xG. Brann scores an average of 2.11 goals, while Start concedes 1.50 goals per match, further supporting the prospect of an away goal. Both teams also have a very high percentage of matches featuring a goal after half-time—80% and 78%, respectively—making Over 1.5 clearly safer than higher lines.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is Brann leading at the break and the visitors winning, as Start conceded an average of 1.4 goals before half-time in their last five matches, compared with just 0.4 for Brann. The visitors were ahead at half-time in 40% of their last five games, while the hosts went into the break trailing in as many as 60% of them. Current form also favours Brann: over their last five appearances, they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, compared with Start’s 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. After the break, Brann continue to demonstrate attacking potential, averaging 1.2 goals in the second half across their last five matches, while Start won the second half in only 20% of those games. The hosts have a higher season-long xG, 2.09 compared with 1.39, but their weaker recent defensive form increases the likelihood that Brann will take an early lead and hold on to it.