Stenhousemuir vs Partick Thistle: match statistics

Stenhousemuir are in excellent form, having won their last 5 matches, while Partick Thistle have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat over the same period. The hosts average 2.5 goals per game at home and have won both matches played there so far, whereas the visitors score just 1 goal per away game on average and draw in 50% of their outings. Stenhousemuir’s advantage is also evident in their finishing efficiency: they convert 28% of their shots, compared with just 10% for Partick Thistle. Both defences concede 0.5 goals per game at home and away respectively, but the hosts have a higher attacking xG: 1.39 compared with 1.32. The visitors’ solid defence and average xG against of 0.79 increase the likelihood of a draw, but the current run of form and significantly greater attacking efficiency favour Stenhousemuir.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: Stenhousemuir have not conceded a goal in the league yet, while Partick Thistle concede an average of just 0.5 goals per match. In their last five games, BTTS landed in only 20% of cases for both teams, with average goals conceded of 0.2 and 0.4 respectively. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches this season, while the visitors have failed to score in only 0% of matches; however, their scoring average is a modest 1.0 goal. The league also favors lower-scoring outcomes, averaging 1.76 goals per match with BTTS at 36%, and neither team has yet played a match with over 2.5 goals. Partick Thistle may struggle to break down the hosts’ defense, making it more likely that at least one team will finish the match without scoring.

The competition profile is clearly defensive: the average is just 1.76 goals per match, and only 16% of games finished Over 2.5 goals. In the matches involving both teams under the current conditions, all fixtures to date—100%—have stayed below 2.5 and 3.5 goals. Stenhousemuir have conceded just 0.2 goals per match over their last five games, while their average xG against stands at 0.85, significantly limiting Partick Thistle’s prospects. The visitors average 1.0 goal per game, but have scored only 0.8 per match across their last five outings, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of the home games analysed. The projected total of 1.85 goals points to a low-scoring game, with Under 3.5 offering the strongest statistical safety margin.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Stenhousemuir win at full-time, as the hosts have been level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while averaging just 0.4 goals scored before the break. At the same time, their five-match winning streak has been built on an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded per game, whereas Partick Thistle have won just 40% of their last five fixtures. Stenhousemuir clearly step up after the break, averaging 1.4 goals scored in the second half across their last five matches, while the visitors have failed to score in that period. The hosts have also kept a clean sheet before half-time in all five of their most recent appearances, further increasing the likelihood of a cautious first-half draw followed by a turnaround in their favour.