Stevenage vs Stockport County: match statistics

Stevenage win 61% of matches at home, concede an average of 0.57 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 57% of fixtures, which gives them a clear defensive edge. Stockport, despite being 3rd in the table and scoring 71 goals this season versus Stevenage’s 49, average 1.43 goals on the road but also concede 1.39 and have only 22% clean sheets; visitors fail to score in 22% of away matches, while hosts fail to score at home in just 13% of games. In the last 5 matches Stevenage have scored 6 goals and hold a 2-2-1 record, averaging 1.6 points per game; Stockport in their last 5 are 2-1-2, scored 10 goals and average 1.4 points per game, with both teams conceding 8 goals in their last five. Home xG for the hosts is 1.32 versus 1.39 away xG for the visitors, and conversion rates are similar (11% vs 12%), so the decisive factor remains Stevenage’s defensive resilience (0.95 xG conceded at home versus 1.35 xG conceded by Stockport away). Based on this I forecast a home win with probabilities distributed as: 55% Stevenage, 25% draw and 20% Stockport.

Both teams have season BTTS at 61% (Stevenage 61% and Stockport 61%) versus a league average of 53%, which already favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. In the last 5 matches BTTS is 60% for Stevenage and 80% for Stockport, and Stockport averaged 2.0 goals per game vs 1.2 for Stevenage, indicating greater scoring activity from the visitors. xG confirms these signals: Stevenage xG_for 1.68 vs Stockport xG_against 1.35 and Stockport xG_for 1.39 vs Stevenage xG_against 1.22, so both sides are generating expected scoring opportunities. Clean sheet percentages are low (Stevenage 30%, Stockport 22%), with average shots on target 5.0 vs 4.7 and seasonal goals for/against (49 and 46 for Stevenage, 71 and 58 for Stockport) reinforcing a propensity for Goal/Goal outcomes. Based on this I assess BTTS - Yes at 75% and No Goal at 25%, therefore the best selection is 'Yes'.

Based on comparing attack and defense, I project Stevenage to generate around 1.52 xG (seasonal xG 1.68 vs opponent conceded 1.35 xG) and Stockport about 1.30 xG (seasonal xG 1.39 vs Stevenage concedes 1.22), totaling ~2.82 expected goals. Both teams have high shares of matches over 1.5 goals this season: Stevenage 78% and Stockport 83%, while both teams score in 61% of games, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Shot and conversion stats confirm the goal potential: Stevenage average 5.0 shots on target with an 11% conversion, Stockport 4.7 on target and 12% conversion, and in the last 5 matches Stockport scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) versus Stevenage 6 goals (1.2 per game). A Poisson model with a combined expected total of 2.82 yields roughly 77% chance of Over 1.5, 54% for Over 2.5 and 31% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest data signal is a play on Over 1.5.

A draw at half-time with a Stevenage victory at full-time (X/1) is the most justified scenario. Both teams are frequently level at the break: Stevenage were level at half-time in 39% of their matches and Stockport in 48% of away games — averaging around a 44% chance of a level score after 45 minutes. After the break the home side clearly dominate: Stevenage score on average 1.00 goals in second halves versus 0.65 for Stockport and have collected 45 points in second halves (an average of 1.96 points), whereas Stockport have 24 points (1.04), which shows a real Stevenage advantage after the break. Additionally, the higher home xG (1.68 vs 1.39), a better season win rate for the home side (57% vs 39%) and 13 Stevenage goals in minutes 76–90 versus 5 for the visitors suggest the half-time draw will be overturned in favor of Stevenage.