Stilon Gorzów vs Barycz Sułów: match statistics

Barycz Sułów have the stronger season record, with 6 wins in 10 matches compared to Stilon’s 3, and have won 3 of their last 5 games, while the hosts have managed just one. Away from home, the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.90 xG, but score only 0.75 goals per match and have failed to find the net in half of those games. Stilon concede an average of 0.80 goals at home, and 3 of their 5 home matches have ended in draws. A share of the points is also supported by the hosts’ average of just 1 goal scored at home, although Barycz’s defence allows chances worth 1.55 xG per away match. The visitors’ stronger form boosts their chances of winning, but their poor away finishing and Stilon’s tendency to draw make a draw the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument against both teams scoring is Barycz’s lack of scoring effectiveness: away from home, they average 0.75 goals and have failed to score in 50% of matches. Stilon keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home games, while conceding an average of 1.0 goals, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will fail to find the net. The hosts average 2.33 goals at home and have scored in every such match, so the “BTTS - No” pick here primarily points to a possible Barycz failure to score, not a goalless draw. However, the signal is not strong: Stilon’s last five matches have featured BTTS in 80% of cases, and Barycz’s away xG is 1.90 despite their low scoring average. Ultimately, Barycz’s 25% away rate of matches featuring goals from both teams outweighs these arguments and gives a slight edge to “BTTS - No”.

Stilon average 2.33 goals scored at home, and at least 2 goals are scored in 83% of those matches, strongly supporting Over 1.5 goals. Barycz score just 0.75 goals per away match and have failed to score in 50% of their games, so I expect the hosts to account for most of the goals. However, the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.90 xG and have scored 1.4 goals per game across their last 5 matches, so their contribution to the scoreline cannot be ruled out. The 2.81-goal forecast offers a stronger signal for Over 1.5 goals than for Over 2.5 goals, particularly as only 50% of Barycz’s away matches have gone over the latter line.

Stilon score an average of 2.33 goals per home match, while Barycz average 0.75 away, giving the hosts stronger grounds for victory. Stilon led at the break in 50% of their home matches and were never trailing, whereas Barycz were behind at half-time in 50% of their away games. The hosts score an average of 1.00 goals before the break, matching the number of goals the visitors concede in that period, which points to an early lead for Stilon. After half-time, Stilon average 1.33 goals, compared with just 0.25 for Barycz, so the hosts look more likely to hold their advantage than for the visitors to engineer a turnaround. However, the 1/1 HT/FT pick is not a strong one: Barycz led at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Stilon did so in none, increasing the likelihood of outcomes other than the hosts leading from start to finish.