Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic: match statistics

Charlton Athletic are top of the table and have won all 3 of their league matches so far, while Stoke City sit 24th after 3 defeats. The visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals during that run, whereas the hosts have conceded 10 goals over the same period and managed just 1 victory. Away from home, Charlton average 2 goals per match, 5 shots on target and a 29% conversion rate, compared with Stoke’s 1 goal, 2 shots on target and 17% efficiency at home. Stoke lost their only home match, concede an average of 2 goals there and have yet to keep a clean sheet, while Charlton have a perfect away record. Caution is warranted by the xG figures: the hosts allow opponents just 1.01 xG, but superior finishing and a significantly stronger current run point towards the visitors.

The signal for both teams to score is strong: Charlton recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, while Stoke did so in 50%, against a league average as high as 78%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of games, with Stoke conceding an average of 2.0 goals and Charlton 1.6. Charlton score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Stoke score 1.5 at home, and the visitors have yet to keep a single clean sheet. The hosts create an average of 1.5 xG, while Charlton’s defence allows opponents 2.8 xG, clearly strengthening the chances of a Stoke goal. At the same time, Charlton average 5 shots on target and have scored in every match, so despite Stoke’s 50% clean-sheet rate, the BTTS - Yes scenario is more likely.

Stoke’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, while Charlton’s games averaged 3.4 goals, indicating a realistic chance of at least two goals. Both teams score regularly: across this sample, Stoke averaged 1.2 goals and Charlton 1.8, while conceding 2.0 and 1.6 goals per match respectively. The hosts’ attacking potential is further supported by an average home xG of 1.50, alongside Charlton conceding as much as 2.80 xG away from home. Despite these arguments in favor of goals, neither side has recorded a match with over 3.5 goals in the current data, and both teams have 100% of their matches below this line. The projected total of 2.85 goals therefore gives the strongest edge to Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Charlton win in the match, as Stoke were level at the break in 80% of their last five games, while Charlton averaged 0.8 goals scored and conceded just 0.6 before half-time over the same period. The visitors are clearly more effective in their current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and average 1.8 goals per game, whereas Stoke have lost 3 of their last 5 and concede an average of 2.0 goals. After the break, Charlton average 1.0 goal, while Stoke have scored just 0.4 goals in the second halves of their last five matches and simultaneously allow opponents an average of 1.0. In addition, the hosts have an xG of 1.50, but Charlton’s defence allows opponents a high xG of 2.80, which keeps Stoke’s chances of an initial draw alive; however, the visitors’ stronger run and greater consistency point towards an eventual win.