Stoke City vs Watford: match statistics
Stoke City presents a solid disposition at their own stadium, having won 39% of their matches with a +6 goal difference and an average of 1.44 goals per game. The hosts maintain a high average ball possession (54%) and shooting efficiency (12%) in home games, giving them the upper hand. Watford fares much worse in away matches - a mere 22% win rate, a negative goal difference (-3), and a lower average xG (1.31). Both teams' form over the last 5 matches is similar; however, the home-field advantage and Stoke's superior offensive and defensive stats in home fixtures point towards their victory. Nevertheless, Watford's high away draw rate (44%) suggests the visitors could put up a fight, making the probability of a draw quite relevant as well.
Stoke City vs Watford: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Stoke City played Watford in Championship (England). The match was played on 14 March 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Stoke City: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Watford: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Stoke City scores 1.14 and concedes 1.05 goals per match. Watford scores 1.28 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Stoke City 41%, Watford 61%. Over 2.5: Stoke City 43%, Watford 44%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Watford has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.27. Stoke City: 11.1 shots per match, Watford: 14.1.
Match halves
Stoke City: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.59. Watford: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.72.
Goals by minute
Stoke City: 31-45+ (9 goals). Watford: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Stoke City presents a solid disposition at their own stadium, having won 39% of their matches with a +6 goal difference and an average of 1.44 goals per game. The hosts maintain a high average ball possession (54%) and shooting efficiency (12%) in home games, giving them the upper hand. Watford fares much worse in away matches - a mere 22% win rate, a negative goal difference (-3), and a lower average xG (1.31). Both teams' form over the last 5 matches is similar; however, the home-field advantage and Stoke's superior offensive and defensive stats in home fixtures point towards their victory. Nevertheless, Watford's high away draw rate (44%) suggests the visitors could put up a fight, making the probability of a draw quite relevant as well.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Stoke City | Watford | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Watford is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Stoke City · 1.6 pts / match - Watford
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Watford is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
1.14 goals / match - Stoke City · 1.28 goals / match - Watford
Stoke City is 11% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.05 goals / match - Stoke City · 1.17 goals / match - Watford
Stoke City scores in 62% of matches (23 of 37 matches), while Watford keeps a clean sheet in 17% (6 of 36 matches).
Watford scores in 75% of matches (27 of 36 matches), while Stoke City keeps a clean sheet in 32% (12 of 37 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Stoke City
Over / Under - Watford
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Stoke City is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.43 pts / match - Stoke City · 1.08 pts / match - Watford
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Stoke City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Watford - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Stoke City
Watford
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Stoke City | Liga | Watford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.19 | 2.58 | ▼ 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 56% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 50% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 25% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 59% | 71% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 70% | 78% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Stoke City 0 - 0 - 1 Watford. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Stoke City vs Watford?
The Championship match finished Stoke City 3:1 Watford. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Stoke City vs Watford?
Stoke City score 1.14 goals per game on average and Watford 1.28. The Championship average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Stoke City's matches and 61% of Watford's.
What form are Stoke City and Watford in?
Over the last 5 games Stoke City have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Watford 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Stoke City vs Watford?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Stoke City vs Watford: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.