Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II: match statistics

Rapid Wien II are showing clearly superior current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.8 points across them, while Sturm Graz II have lost 4 of their 5 games. The visitors are also highly effective away from home, winning both of their matches so far, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.5 per game. Sturm do average 2 goals per home match, but they are yet to keep a clean sheet and typically allow opponents 2 goals. Rapid create more chances away, averaging 13 shots and 6.5 on target compared with the hosts’ 7.5 and 4, while their xG stands at 1.69 versus Sturm’s 1.35. The hosts enjoy more possession more often, but their defence has already conceded 13 goals in their last five appearances, further strengthening the case for an away win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by Sturm Graz II’s defensive weakness: the hosts have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per match. Rapid Wien II score an average of 1.5 goals, register 6.5 shots on target per game and have an xG of 1.69, making their goal highly likely. The hosts score only 0.5 goals per match across the season, but have improved to 1.2 goals over their last five fixtures, with an xG of 1.40. Rapid’s defence has kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, but over the last five games they have allowed opponents an xG of 1.91 and conceded an average of 1.4 goals, increasing Sturm’s chances of finding the net. Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances, so a Goal/Goal scenario has a slight edge over BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

Sturm Graz II have averaged 1.2 goals scored in their last 5 matches, but conceded as many as 2.6, which significantly increases the game’s goal-scoring potential. Rapid Wien II also averaged 1.2 goals per match during this period, while the hosts have conceded at least one goal in 100% of their appearances so far this season. The chance-quality metrics are high on both sides: Sturm generate an average of 1.40 xG, while Rapid produce 1.53 xG, with their defences allowing 1.70 and 1.91 xG respectively. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Sturm’s last 5 matches and 60% of Rapid’s games, but the strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, supported by a projected total of 3.00 goals.

Rapid Wien II have made a clearly stronger start to the season, winning both matches, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding just 0.5, while Sturm Graz II have lost both fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per match. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the visitors held a lead at the break in 100% of their matches so far, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding none, whereas the hosts have never taken the lead and have conceded an average of 1.0 goal. Recent form over the last five matches also favours Rapid: the visitors won 60% of their games, while Sturm lost 80% and were behind at half-time in 80%. Rapid’s attack averages 13.0 shots, including 6.5 on target, compared with Sturm’s 10.5 and 4.5 respectively, while their conversion rate stands at 12%, against just 5% for the hosts. After the interval, Rapid have not lost either of the two halves played, while Sturm concede an average of 1.5 goals in those periods. Therefore, the scenario in which the visitors lead at half-time and go on to win the match is the most likely HT/FT outcome.