Stuttgart II vs Osnabrück: match statistics

The favorites are the visitors — Osnabrück: they sit 1st in the table, have won 23 matches this season and have a 4 wins and 1 draw record in their last 5 games, which translates to an average of 2.6 points per game in that period. In attack Osnabrück score an average of 1.83 goals away with an average xG of 1.62, while Stuttgart II at home score 1.72 goals and have xG 1.60, so the difference in chance quality is minimal (1.62 vs 1.60), and the visitors’ conversion rate is slightly higher (14% conversion vs 13% for the hosts). The key advantage for the visitors is defensively: Osnabrück concede 1.06 goals away and have 44% clean sheets on the road, whereas Stuttgart II concede 1.33 at home and have only 17% clean sheets; the hosts also conceded 14 goals in their last 5 matches, indicating defensive instability. Shot statistics are comparable (Stuttgart at home 13.28 shots and 5.33 on target, Osnabrück away 13.56 and 4.78), but the lower share of goalless games for the visitors (11% vs 17%) and the higher away win rate (67% versus the hosts’ 50% home win rate) favor Osnabrück. Therefore I predict an away win; I assess the probabilities at approximately 62% for Osnabrück, 23% for a draw and 15% for a Stuttgart II win.

I back BTTS - Yes. Primary rationale: high BTTS rate in 3. Liga (64%) and Osnabrück’s seasonal BTTS of 50%, providing strong league-level and away-side impetus for both teams to score. Although Stuttgart II has a low season BTTS of 32% and a high clean sheet expected rate of 58%, their last 5 matches show the opposite trend: 100% of those games finished Goal/Goal, with Stuttgart averaging 2.8 goals scored and conceded across those five. Osnabrück’s last 5 matches show BTTS 60%, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, and their season xG is 1.62 (attack) and 1.4 (defense), indicating the ability to create chances while still being vulnerable to conceding. Additionally, both teams have similar xG (1.55 for Stuttgart vs 1.62 for Osnabrück) and comparable shot metrics (12.74 vs 13.56 shots, 4.58 vs 4.78 shots on target), which increases the likelihood of goal exchange. Considering the league rate of 64%, recent 5-match deviations (notably Stuttgart’s 100% BTTS) and comparable attacking parameters, I assess BTTS probability at 73% for Yes and 27% for No.

Based on average xG and defensive xG, I estimate Stuttgart II will score about 1.48 goals (home xG 1.55 vs conceded xG Osnabrück 1.40 → 1.48), and Osnabrück about 1.39 goals (away xG 1.62 vs conceded xG Stuttgart II 1.16 → 1.39), giving a total of ~2.87 goals. Seasonal averages confirm a tendency toward matches with at least two goals: Stuttgart II scores 1.53 and concedes 0.63 on average, Osnabrück scores 1.83 and concedes 1.06, and the share of matches over 1.5 is 68% for the home side and 67% for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Stuttgart II has a goals record of 14:14 (avg 2.8 scored and 2.8 conceded), while Osnabrück has 8:4 (1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded), which together reinforces the expectation of a higher total. A Poisson model with mean 2.87 yields probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈78%, Over 2.5 ≈55% and Over 3.5 ≈32%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5. Additionally, the league averages 3.17 goals per game, and in the last 5 home matches Stuttgart’s Over 2.5 rate is 100%, further supporting a play on Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with Osnabrück winning after the final whistle (X/2). The hosts drew at the break in 53% of their matches and have 74% clean sheets at half-time with an average of 0.79 goals in the first half, which increases the probability of a draw at the break. At the same time Osnabrück show better form and efficiency: they win 67% of matches this season and 80% in the last 5, score on average 1.83 goals per match versus Stuttgart II’s 1.53, and have a higher xG of 1.62 compared to 1.55. The visitors more often decide matches after the break — averaging 1.72 goals in second halves versus the hosts’ 1.37 and with 78% of the visitors’ matches featuring a second-half goal — which supports the scenario of a visitor win after a draw at half-time. Therefore I treat X/2 as the strongest signal (30%), with significant alternatives 2/2 (15%) and 1/2 (10%) stemming from the visitors’ offensive advantage and the hosts’ poorer form.