Stuttgart II vs Rot-Weiss Essen: match statistics

Rot-Weiss Essen sit 3rd in the table while Stuttgart II are 14th; the visitors have scored 73 goals this season versus the hosts' 45, indicating a clear offensive advantage. In their last 5 matches Rot-Weiss have scored 12 goals with a record of 3 wins and 2 losses (avg. 1.8 points per match), whereas Stuttgart II have 9 goals with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (avg. 1 point per match). Rot-Weiss average 15.06 shots per game, of which 5.47 are on target, and have a conversion rate of 14%, translating to 2.06 goals away; the hosts record 13.41 shots, 5.24 on target and 11% conversion with 1.47 home goals. The home defenders perform slightly better in conceded goals at home (1.35 avg. at home vs 2.12 conceded by Rot-Weiss away), but xG metrics are comparable (xG for: Rot-Weiss 1.75 vs Stuttgart II 1.61; xG against: Stuttgart II 1.55 vs Rot-Weiss 1.52), suggesting Rot-Weiss is more efficient in chance conversion. Considering league position, superior goal tally and better shooting efficiency, I predict a Rot-Weiss Essen victory.

Both teams show very high BTTS rates this season: Stuttgart II 78% and Rot-Weiss Essen 88%, significantly above the league average of 64%. Season averages indicate Stuttgart II scores 2.11 and concedes 1.22 per match, while Essen scores 2.06 and concedes 2.12, increasing the likelihood of mutual scoring. In the last 5 matches Stuttgart has 100% BTTS with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, and Essen 80% BTTS with 2.4 scored and 1.8 conceded, confirming both teams’ tendency to score and concede. xG and shot data further support the attacking profiles: xG 1.87 vs 1.75 in attack and xG against 1.59 vs 1.52, with average shots 16.33 vs 15.06 and shots on target 6.0 vs 5.47; Over2.5 matches stand at 61% for the home side and 76% for the away, while Over2.5+BTTS occurs in 56% and 71% respectively. Given the low clean sheet probabilities (22% and 6%) and all the above figures, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 85% and No 15%.

The forecast indicates high goal potential: expected xG is 1.70 for Stuttgart II and 1.67 for Rot‑Weiss Essen, totaling 3.37 goals. Both teams score heavily this season — Stuttgart II averages 2.11 goals per match, Essen 2.06 — and attacking xG are 1.87 and 1.75 respectively, confirming an offensive profile. Strong signals for the Over: matches >1.5 goals account for 83% for the home side and 94% for the away side, and >2.5 goals 61% and 76%; in the last 5 fixtures both teams had 80% of games over 2.5, with average goals in those 5 matches of 3.8 and 4.2. Clean sheets are unlikely: the home team kept a clean sheet in 22% of matches, the away team in 6%, while BTTS occurred in 78% and 88% of games, further boosting the probability of at least two goals. Based on these numbers I recommend backing Over 1.5 (Over) as the strongest and safest play, while Over 2.5 also looks attractive (approx. 74% chances), and Over 3.5 is riskier (approx. 53%).

The most likely scenario is 1/1 — Stuttgart II leads at half-time and wins the match; the hosts led at the break in 10 matches (56%) and won 61% of their home games. Stuttgart II scores on average 1.17 goals by half-time (32 first-half goals), while Rot‑Weiss Essen averages 0.65 goals by half-time (23 HT goals); additionally the hosts’ xG is 1.87 versus the visitors’ 1.75, indicating a slight creative edge for the home side. The visitors, however, remain dangerous: in their last 5 matches Rot‑Weiss Essen won 3 of 5 (60%) and led at half-time in 3 of 5 (60%), and away they have 88% of matches with both teams scoring and only 6% clean sheets. Rot‑Weiss Essen concedes an average of 2.12 goals per match, and Stuttgart II registers on average 6.0 shots on target with a 13% conversion rate, which supports a home win with a goal for the visitors (e.g. 2:1). Considering seasonal HT statistics (leadingAtHT 56% vs 24%) and the high BTTS percentages (78% for the hosts and 88% for the visitors), the 1/1 selection is the strongest signal, with a moderate probability of half-time draws and turnarounds in the second half.