Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: match statistics

Stuttgart has a clear home-field advantage: at home they win 77% of matches, score an average of 1.69 goals and concede only 0.92 goals per game with an average of 6 shots on target and 57% possession. Borussia Dortmund is more efficient in conversion (16% vs 11%) and averages 1.92 goals on the road with 12.08 shots, but records a higher away draw rate (38%) and concedes more frequently away (1.15 per game). xG metrics show a similar level of chances: Stuttgart generates 1.75 xG at home versus Borussia’s 1.50 xG away, with xG against of 1.31 vs 1.38, indicating qualitatively balanced opportunities. In the last 5 matches Borussia scored 10 and conceded 10 goals with an average of 1.8 points per game, while Stuttgart has 9 scored, 8 conceded and 1.4 points per game, suggesting a more stable home defense. Considering Stuttgart’s 77% home win rate and their advantage in possession and shots, I predict a narrow home victory (48% for 1, 28% for X, 24% for 2).

I favor the “YES” (BTTS) scenario at 65% vs 35% because the strongest signal comes from Borussia: season BTTS 69% and as high as 80% in the last 5 matches. Additionally, the league has a season BTTS of 57% and an average of 3.19 goals per match, and both teams have been scoring heavily — Stuttgart averages 2.36 goals (56 goals this season), Borussia 1.92 goals (58 goals). xG comparison reinforces the goals projection: Stuttgart xG_for 1.76 versus Borussia xG_against 1.38, and Borussia xG_for 1.50 versus Stuttgart xG_against 1.07, which suggests real scoring opportunities from both sides. The counterargument is Stuttgart’s high share of clean sheets at home — 57% — and an average of 0.93 goals conceded this season, which reduces the BTTS likelihood and justifies 35% for the “NO” outcome. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 60% (Stuttgart) and 80% (Dortmund), and Dortmund averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded in that period, so I ultimately favor “YES.”

In my analysis I give strong backing to Over 1.5 (90%) — Stuttgart has 86% of matches over 1.5 goals and Borussia 92%, which alone makes this line a very high priority. The hosts average 2.36 goals and have an xG of 1.76, the visitors score 1.92 goals with an xG of 1.50; a simple averaging yields 1.57 xG for Stuttgart and 1.29 for Dortmund, totalling 2.86 expected goals. Stuttgart averages 5.57 shots on target, Dortmund 4.23, and both teams have a conversion rate of 16%, which supports the realism of goals from both sides. I rate Over 2.5 as moderate at 65% (seasonal 57%/62% for the teams and expected 2.86), while Over 3.5 is unlikely (30%) given seasonal rates of 43% for the hosts and 23% for the visitors.

Seasonal indicators favor Stuttgart: the hosts average 2.36 goals per match versus Borussia's 1.92, have a higher xG (1.76 vs 1.50) and generate more shots (on average 14.86 vs 12.08 and 5.57 on target vs 4.23), which translates into more chances. At half-time Stuttgart scores on average 1.07 goals and concedes only 0.29, and they led at the break in 71% of home matches, so taking a lead before half-time is natural for them. Although Borussia are in good form (60% wins in their last 5 matches and they led at half-time in 60% of those games), their season-long effectiveness as visitors (54% wins) is lower than Stuttgart's home dominance (79% wins). Considering Stuttgart's advantage in xG and goals (2.36 vs 1.92) and their very low average goals conceded before half-time (0.29), the most likely scenario is the home side leading at the break and winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1).