Stuttgart vs Köln: match statistics

Köln are showing significantly better current form: in their last 5 matches, they have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw with no defeats, scoring 17 goals. Over the same period, Stuttgart have a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, while their 10 goals scored are offset by a weaker defence that has conceded 9. The visitors are also higher in the table, sitting in 7th place, whereas the hosts are 18th after losing their opening match 1:5. Köln began the season with a 3:2 victory, so despite conceding 2 goals, they were able to confirm their attacking superiority in a competitive fixture. Stuttgart may benefit from home advantage, but greater efficiency and a more stable results trend point towards an away win.

The latest form clearly points toward goals at both ends: Stuttgart have recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, while Köln have done so in as many as 80%. During this period, the hosts averaged 2.0 goals scored with an xG of 1.77, whereas Köln produced an impressive 3.4 goals per match and created chances worth 1.64 xG. Stuttgart’s defence conceded an average of 1.8 goals and allowed opponents 1.73 xG, giving the visitors strong grounds to find the net. Köln are more defensively stable, conceding an average of 1.2 goals and allowing opponents 1.02 xG, but Stuttgart’s attack should still create chances, especially given their average of 18 shots and 6 shots on target at home. The league’s high average of 3.89 goals per match further supports a scenario in which both teams find the back of the net, making BTTS - Yes the preferred selection over BTTS - No.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Stuttgart scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 1.8 in their last five matches, producing an impressive 3.8 goals per game. Köln presents an even stronger attacking profile: they scored an average of 3.4 goals, while their last five matches produced an average total of 4.6 goals. In these runs, at least three goals were scored in 80% of Stuttgart’s matches and 100% of Köln’s, although caution is warranted for the 2.5 line due to the limited sample of away data this season. The xG indicators also suggest chances at both ends, with Stuttgart averaging 1.77 xG and Köln 1.64 xG, while the hosts conceded 1.73 xG. A projected total of 3.15 goals provides a clear edge for Over 1.5 goals, while maintaining a more moderate level of risk on Over 2.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Köln win at full-time, as the visitors have averaged 3.4 goals scored in their last five matches, remained unbeaten in all of them, and won 80% of those games. Over the same period, Stuttgart conceded an average of 1.8 goals, including 1.5 after the break. The first half should be more evenly balanced: Stuttgart averaged 0.75 goals scored and just 0.25 conceded before half-time, while Köln recorded figures of 0.8 and 0.6, respectively. At the same time, Köln were trailing at half-time in as many as 40% of their recent matches, yet went on to score an impressive 2.6 goals per game after the interval and won the second half in 80% of cases. This suggests that the hosts may hold the game level in the opening phase, but Köln’s superior attacking form and strength after the break point towards an away victory at full-time.