Südtirol vs Modena: match statistics

Modena is the favorite: they sit 6th in the table versus Südtirol’s 10th and have a superior goal record — 43 scored and 28 conceded compared to the hosts’ 35 scored and 36 conceded. In the last 5 matches Modena have scored 7 goals and recorded 2 wins, while Südtirol have only 4 goals and 0 wins and average 0.4 points per match in that period (vs 1.4 for Modena). Chance quality also favors the visitors: Modena average 17.53 shots per match and 4.93 on target, with an average xG of 1.84 per match versus 1.54 for Südtirol. Defensively Modena concede 0.93 goals on average in away matches versus 1.00 conceded by Südtirol at home, have 40% clean sheets and a lower 33% FTS vs 44% for the hosts, which reduces the risk of goalless games for the visitors. Based on these comparisons I give Modena the greater probability of winning, although a draw is possible given the small difference in xG and average goals (2.13 vs 2.06).

Both teams show a strong BTTS tendency in their last 5 matches – 60% for both Südtirol and Modena, while season figures are 53% (Südtirol) and 40% (Modena). xG numbers indicate goals from both sides: Modena has an attacking xG of 1.84 versus Südtirol’s average xG conceded of 0.99, and Südtirol generates xG 1.61 against Modena’s xG conceded 1.25. Although seasonal conceded goals are low (Südtirol 0.82, Modena 0.93), in the last 5 matches they conceded on average 1.6 (Südtirol) and 1.2 (Modena), which raises the likelihood of both teams scoring. Additionally, the league BTTS rate is 55% with an average 2.56 goals per game, and similar shots on target numbers (4.82 vs 4.93) confirm balanced chance creation, so I favor BTTS - Yes at 65% versus 35% for No.

Seasonal indicators strongly support at least 2 goals: Südtirol has 82% of matches over 1.5 goals, Modena 73% — the average is about 77.5%, therefore I assess Over 1.5 at 78%. An xG-based model confirms this signal: Südtirol’s 1.61 attacking xG vs Modena’s 1.25 defensive xG suggests ~1.43 expected goals for the home side, and Modena’s 1.84 attacking xG vs Südtirol’s 0.99 defensive xG yields ~1.42 for the away side; total ≈2.85 goals. Data for Over 2.5 are mixed — seasonally Südtirol 65% vs Modena 33% (average ≈49%), but in Modena’s last 5 matches Over 2.5 is 80%, so I slightly lift the probability for Over 2.5 to ~52%. Over 3.5 looks unlikely: Südtirol 0% seasonally, Modena 20% → I estimate Over 3.5 at about 10% (Under 90%). Therefore the best and strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5), based on high seasonal 82%/73% and combined xG ≈2.85, which indicates at least two goals.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Südtirol lead at the break in 41% of matches and are level at half-time in 41%, so a large portion of games are undecided after the first 45 minutes. Crucially, the hosts dominate after the break: Südtirol’s second-half goals per game average is 1.53 versus Modena’s 0.87, and in 82% of their home matches at least one goal is scored after half-time, which favors a turnaround from a half-time draw. Seasonally, Südtirol average 1.47 goals scored and 0.82 conceded in the second half, while Modena average 1.20 scored and 0.93 conceded, and the home side’s shot conversion is 10% versus the visitors’ 7%, increasing the likelihood of a Südtirol goal after the break. Modena create more chances overall (xG 1.84 versus 1.61) and have won 40% of their last five matches, whereas Südtirol have not won any of their last five (0%), but the hosts’ second-half superiority and high conversion rate justify selecting X/1.